Best Supporting Actor

One of my favorite performances this year was Ben Kingsley’s turn as a simmering fireball of a crook in Sexy Beast; his against-type role and the near-unanimous praise that it attracted assures him of an Oscar nod. The great Jim Broadbent’s wins for Iris at the Globes and elsewhere also put him on track for a nomination. Jon Voight should pull a nod for his rich, intelligent portrayal of Howard Cosell in Ali. Ian McKellen, his chances bolstered by his SAG nomination, will likely be the sole performer recognized from The Fellowship of the Ring’s ensemble. Finally, I see the oft-acclaimed indie vet Steve Buscemi taking his first Oscar nomination for his role as an endearing misfit in Ghost World. More distant possibilities in this traditionally talent-packed category include Brian Cox in L.I.E., Jude Law in A.I. Artificial Intelligence, Hayden Christensen in Life as a House and Tony Shalhoub in The Man Who Wasn’t There.

Best Supporting Actress

A Beautiful Mind’s Jennifer Connelly and Gosford Park’s Helen Mirren are the frontrunners here, Connelly having taken the Globe and the AFI award, and Mirren having won multiple prizes from critics’ organizations. Behind them, in a tight pack, are Mirren’s castmate Maggie Smith, In the Bedroom’s Marisa Tomei and Iris’s Kate Winslet, as well as Vanilla Sky’s Cameron Diaz and Bandits’ Cate Blanchett. Of the five, Tomei’s and Smith’s films are the most prominent in the Oscar race, and will lift the actresses to nominations. The category’s fifth space will probably fall to the ever-lauded Winslet, although Diaz’s SAG nomination makes her almost as likely to take the spot. Meanwhile, Blanchett, though an invariably wonderful actress, will unfortunately see her support split among several films this year.

Best Screenplay

Most likely to be nominated for best original screenplays are Memento, whose innovative screenplay has figured in nearly every set of awards this year, and Gosford Park, whose script has also won recognition from many organizations. Both of these films, as well as the others that I’m predicting in this category, are offbeat critical darlings, a type of film which usually makes its best showing in the screenplay categories. Outside possibilities for nods include the scripts for Moulin Rouge, Monsters Ball, and The Others.

Apart from Ghost World, every one of the films potentially a nominee for best adapted screenplay can also be a contender for Best Picture nominations, and their well-received screenplays will probably similarly battle one another in this category. Ghost World’s script, meanwhile, has received enough awards recognition to sensibly round out the field. Keep in mind, though, that Black Hawk Down, Iris or The Shipping News could overtake Shrek or Ghost World for a slot.