Nominees: The Crucible; The English Patient; Hamlet; Sling Blade; Trainspotting.

As with Secrets & Lies, I have no idea what Hamlet is doing here, since Kenneth Branagh preened so much over not altering Shakespeare's text. Arthur Miller is a hard name to ignore, but the Academy and the public have found it in them to ignore The Crucible altogether. Not enough people understood the accents in Trainspotting to know if the script was any good. That leaves The English Patient and Sling Blade, both of which created complex characters and entire communities, and both of which have key support from the massive actors' branch.

Who Will Win: As with last year's Sense and Sensibility, Minghella's English Patient seems to be losing some momentum elsewhere, but is pretty unstoppable here.

Who Deserves It: Quibble as you will with what Minghella cut. I dare you to read the book and try a version half as good as his.

Best Director

Nominees: Joel Coen, Fargo; Milos Forman, The People vs. Larry Flynt; Scott Hicks, Shine; Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies; Anthony Minghella, The English Patient.

The blurriest race in the derby with pluses and minuses on every side. Minghella and Hicks are the new kids on the block, and an unknown hasn't won since James L. Brooks for 1983s Terms of Endearment. Still, their films seem to be leading the Picture race, and Picture-Director consistency has been broken only four times in the last forty years. Globe-winner Forman's film is the least popular with the Academy, but his career has been the longest and most-celebrated, including two prior wins. Leigh will be a favorite among the actors, who love his improvisational filming style. Coen, meanwhile, has an avid fan base, and he earned the Director's prize at Cannes (even though his film lost to Leigh's). Confused yet?

Who Will Win: Everyone but Hicks has a shot. The Director's Guild Award bodes well for The English Patient: still, don't count out Coen, who's better-known in Hollywood and works with a more personal stamp.

Who Deserves It: Minghella is at least at talented as David Lean, but no one balanced horror, comedy, violence, and pathos as skillfully as Coen did.

Best Picture

Nominees: The English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets Lies and Shine.

Again, a tight race. Eighty percent of the last 20 winners have been the films with the most nominations in their year. That logic would favor The English Patient, with its potent combination of literate filmmaking, pretty pictures and even prettier stars. Secrets Lies and Fargo are not everyone's cup of tea, but those who like them love them. Jerry Maguire would normally be D.O.A. without a director nod, but don't underestimate the Marisa Tomei factor: studio output in a field of itchy new-wavism can pull off big surprises. Shine is easily the least accomplished film, but so were Forrest Gump and Rain Man. Oscar voters like their sappy, stunted geniuses wherever they can get them. Tough call.

Who Will Win: Realistically, Secrets Lies lost the minute an actress changed her tampon onscreen. Likewise, Fargo will never survive its woodchipper finale. Even though Patient once seemed poised to dominate (and it won the Golden Globe), I'm seeing a tough three-way fight with Shine and Jerry Maguire. Still, with nominations in the most categories, Patient seems to have the broadest-based support in the homestretch.

Who Deserves It: Anyone who wrote off Fargo as a mean-spirited riff on Midwestern accents missed the human heart of a totally original film whose every scene, shot, and performance struck the right, eccentric note