I've always been afraid to wonder why Oscar is holding a sword where his genitals are supposed to be. This year, though, his physiology is kind of a moot point. Whatever Oscar's anatomical structure, the little fella has finally shown some balls.

The presence of independent films has finally reached the crescendo we have anticipated throughout the 90s. Rather than a single My Left Foot or The Crying Game to represent the Little Film, this year's oddball is Jerry Maguire, the only Hollywood project to earn a slot in the Picture race. The somnambulists who voted in featherweight tripe like Scent of a Woman and Field of Dreams are finally hibernating where they belong. As Shakespeare once apostrophized, "Studios, studios, where art thou, studios?"

Not only is the standard of quality throughout the Oscar derby remarkably high--and the list of glaring omissions fairly short--but the prevalence of unknown artists over marquee stars in the acting races is another fresh and exciting change. I can't wait to hear the valiant efforts of the forecourt announcer on the ABC telecast, doing her best with lines like, "Glamorous and beautiful, she's... Brenda Blethyn! And look, there's Armin Mueller-Stah!"

Offbeat nominations, however, do not necessitate the same maverick spirit in the final balloting. My suspicion is that Hollywood is still far more predictable than one might think. The nominations themselves, however hip, bear much in common with Old Academy tradition, and if you don't think lifetime achievement, physical affliction, and onscreen heroics can still push a nominee to the podium, you don't know your Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Joan Allen, The Crucible; Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces; Juliette Binoche, The English Patient; Barbara Hershey, The Portrait of a Lady; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets & Lies

This category is a good place to start, in part because it shows how far the Academy has come. In previous years, Mary Tyler Moore would have cinched a nomination just for skewering her sunny image and sporting a Wonderbra in three scenes of Flirting With Disaster. In the same vein, lovable Marion Ross of Happy Days couldn't have missed for wearing age make-up and dying suddenly in The Evening Star. No dice, ladies. Instead, this year's voters went for Jean-Baptiste, an unknown first-timer in a tricky, understated ensemble turn. Allen and Hershey have higher profiles, but Hollywood and the public spurned their films; regardless, their indelible performances were deservedly remembered.

Who Will Win: Ignore everything I just said. This is still Hollywood. No one would dare vote against Lauren Bacall, whose smart, glorious career has yielded no prior nominations, and whose dragon-mom character in Mirror would not take kindly to rejection. Bacall has won the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe Awards, and she's sure to give a helluva speech.

Who Deserves It: Hershey, whose canon of work has been at least as interesting as Bacall's, and never so shattering as her scheming, wounded Madame Merle in Portrait.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire; William H. Macy, Fargo; Armin Mueller-Stahl, Shine; Edward Norton, Primal Fear; James Woods, Ghosts of Mississippi

First, scratch off James Woods: his is the only film in all the categories I haven't seen, but his latex-heavy scenery chewing in the flop movie's preview is way too over-the-top, even for Oscar. Mueller-Stahl, a prickly character actor who deserves more recognition, has too little to do as the terrorizing father in Shine, especially considering that he played the same character in Music Box and The House of the Spirits. That means a head-to-head between Gooding, whose bebop-ebonic hijinks were a riot in Maguire, and Norton, whose hat trick in Fear, The People vs. Larry Flynt and Woody Allen's Everyone Says I Love You, means he's sure to have a brilliant career.

Who Will Win: Gooding. Overpaid Hollywood loves that a character can be charming, talented, outspoken, in love...and still command an $11 million contract.

Who Deserves It: Macy's a dark horse if Fargo goes far; whatever the outcome, his shifty, stuttering car salesman was the subtlest, the saddest, and the funniest of this bunch.

Best Actress