Nominees: Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies; Diane Keaton, Marvin's Room; Frances McDormand, Fargo; Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient; Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves.

An embarassment of riches, even without the deserving work of Courtney Love's lynx in Larry Flynt and Nicole "What-do-I-have-to-do-to-get-on-this-show?" Kidman in The Portrait of a Lady. First out is probably Scott Thomas, a radiant screen presence we all should be watching, but whose part verges on the supporting, and whose chances to make out with Ralph Fiennes are probably reward enough. Keaton has the advantage of exposure in the hit First Wives Club, but Marvin's Room has been seen by so few people that her chances are slim. Watson was the critics' darling of the year, but it's hard to imagine, say, Lauren Bacall voting for a character who gives hand jobs to strangers on a bus. That leaves Cannes and Golden Globe winner Blethyn, and Screen Actors Guild champ McDormand, both in Best Picture nominees, both highly deserving.

Who Will Win: McDormand plays the more likable character, and her work in Lone Star and Primal Fear cemented a solid year. Still, don't count Blethyn out.

Who Deserves It: McDormand, by golly. She was real funny. Ohh, yahh.

Best Actor

Nominees: Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire; Ralph Fiennes, The English Patient; Woody Harrelson, The People vs. Larry Flynt; Geoffrey Rush, Shine; Billy Bob Thornton, Sling Blade.

Again, two names can be shelved quickly. Harrelson is still to be considered a TV actor, and even supporters of his controversial film are more likely to rally around its director than its star. As for Fiennes, The English Patient has enough chances in other categories that it doesn't need a win here. Cruise's nomination is richly deserved, but I suspect that after two $100 million hits in a year (continuing a streak of five), a Golden Globe and a $20 million salary, Hollywood will decide he's been rewarded enough.

Who Will Win: One of the dueling autistics. Rush has swept the pre-Oscar awards, but Sling Blade is riding a big wave of support, especially among actors, who comprise by far the largest voting bloc. I'll give Thornton a razor's edge lead: his picture has the most indie-credibility and the Academy prefers to buy American.

Who Deserves It: Cruise deserves more credit than anyone gives him, but I still prefer Fiennes, who disappears so fully into two versions of the same character that we forget it's a single performance.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Fargo; Jerry Maguire; Lone Star; Secrets & Lies; Shine.

Eliminate both Secrets & Lies, inexplicably nominated since it was shot without a script, and Shine, since biography seldom wins awards for originality. After that it's a toss-up. Fargo got more recognition for its visuals and its characters than for its script, but that's where it all started. Jerry Maguire dared not only to turn a star vehicle into an actual character piece but also to create several likable, believable men and women (and it gave America "Show me the money!") John Sayles's Lone Star was overlooked in every other category, but its dense novelistic structure makes it the most literate of the bunch.

Who Will Win: With Globe winner Larry Flynt mysteriously absent, all three leaders are headed for a photo finish. Lone Star is the favorite among screenwriters, but Fargo has been racking up the pre-show awards--and weird speech patterns did the trick for Pulp Fiction.

Who Deserves It: Sayles is such a good writer that one wonders if he hasn't chosen the wrong medium.

Best Adapted Screenplay