Ma is thought to have great political strength in his record as mayor and in his reputation.

“Ma Ying-Jeou is Mr. Personality,” Goldstein said. “He’s practically a movie star in Taiwan.”

According to Goldstein, Ma’s aura of “quiet confidence” contrasts with that of Lee, who has been “very loud, very fiery, very rhetorical.”

Ma’s Harvard background is a component of that image, Goldstein said. It contributes to the perception of him as “a very bright, very educated, very reasonable person.”

The DPP selected Lee to run against the popular incumbent in May 2002. Lee has served as a legislator and most recently as the secretary-general of the Executive Yuan, which manages the country’s administrative departments.

In choosing Lee, the DPP made its “best choice,” according to Chen. But it might still be not enough. Polls indicate Ma will “crush his opponent,” Goldstein said.

Taipei’s is the most important mayoral seat in Taiwan because it is the nation’s capital and largest city, according to Goldstein. The office has recently been a stepping stone to the country’s presidency.

He added the election could also have important implications for Taiwan’s often tense cross-strait relationship with China, which regards Taiwan as a rebel province.

The DPP, which advocates independence, currently holds the presidency. But Goldstein said KMT victories in Taipei and Kaoshiung, Taiwan’s second largest city, could loosen tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

“If the DPP loses both, China might not decide to do anything until 2004 because they would read that as an increased chance that parties that are more sympathetic to better relations might win,” Goldstein said.

But Julian Chang, executive director of Asia programs at the Kennedy School of Government’s Center for Business and Government, disagrees. He said China has become less reactionary toward Taiwan.

“Whoever emerges victorious will not affect overall state relations,” Chang said.

The race is also crucial for the KMT, which was the ruling party until the 2000 presidential election.

“If KMT loses the Taipei mayoral race, they lose all Taiwan,” said Chen, a fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. “This is the last bastion for KMT to fight for.”