A Harvard graduate is guaranteed to win the Taipei mayoral election this Saturday in a race that may have important ramifications for cross-strait relations with China.

The incumbent and current favorite, Ying-Jeou Ma, earned a doctorate at the Law School in 1981. His opponent, Ying-Yuan Lee, earned a master’s degree from the School of Public Health (SPH) that same year.

“The Harvard factor doesn’t really make any difference in the campaign,” Ma said.

He added that their common experience of having studied at Harvard should be “the basis for two Harvard alumni to pursue a campaign that would set a positive example for society.”

Ma has been an active member of the Harvard Club in Taiwan for more than 20 years. He was president of the organization from 1992 to 1998 and has been honorary president since then. According to Ma, Lee had never had much of a presence at the Club until this summer.

The Harvard name has so far had little bearing on the mayoral race, according to several knowledgeable observers.

But the experts disagree on whether, more generally, Harvard degrees burnish the political reputations of individual candidates.

“Harvard has this enormous cachet in Taiwan,” said Steve Goldstein, co-director of the Taiwan Studies Workshop at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research. “You never know what its influence is, but it carries enormous weight.”

But Ezra Chen, a former assistant director-general in Taiwan’s foreign ministry, said a Harvard background has less importance in Taiwanese politics because “many of our politicians are American educated.”

When the two candidates were at Harvard, they made their respective political leanings known.

During his year at SPH, Lee joined the World United Formosans for Independence, a group that advocates for Taiwanese independence.

Eventually he became the vice-president of the organization, which now is promoting his candidacy.

In the same period, Ma wrote and edited for a handwritten student magazine, Free Chinese Monthly. According to one of the articles he wrote, the magazine promoted a doctrine of “opposing communism, opposing independence.”

Now Lee is running for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors independence, and Ma represents the Kuomingtang (KMT), or Nationalist Party.

Ma returned to Taiwan to serve in a variety of government positions, including minister of justice. In the 1998 Taipei mayoral election, he defeated the then-incumbent, who has gone on to be the president of the country.

Ma is thought to have great political strength in his record as mayor and in his reputation.

“Ma Ying-Jeou is Mr. Personality,” Goldstein said. “He’s practically a movie star in Taiwan.”

According to Goldstein, Ma’s aura of “quiet confidence” contrasts with that of Lee, who has been “very loud, very fiery, very rhetorical.”

Ma’s Harvard background is a component of that image, Goldstein said. It contributes to the perception of him as “a very bright, very educated, very reasonable person.”

The DPP selected Lee to run against the popular incumbent in May 2002. Lee has served as a legislator and most recently as the secretary-general of the Executive Yuan, which manages the country’s administrative departments.

In choosing Lee, the DPP made its “best choice,” according to Chen. But it might still be not enough. Polls indicate Ma will “crush his opponent,” Goldstein said.

Taipei’s is the most important mayoral seat in Taiwan because it is the nation’s capital and largest city, according to Goldstein. The office has recently been a stepping stone to the country’s presidency.

He added the election could also have important implications for Taiwan’s often tense cross-strait relationship with China, which regards Taiwan as a rebel province.

The DPP, which advocates independence, currently holds the presidency. But Goldstein said KMT victories in Taipei and Kaoshiung, Taiwan’s second largest city, could loosen tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

“If the DPP loses both, China might not decide to do anything until 2004 because they would read that as an increased chance that parties that are more sympathetic to better relations might win,” Goldstein said.

But Julian Chang, executive director of Asia programs at the Kennedy School of Government’s Center for Business and Government, disagrees. He said China has become less reactionary toward Taiwan.

“Whoever emerges victorious will not affect overall state relations,” Chang said.

The race is also crucial for the KMT, which was the ruling party until the 2000 presidential election.

“If KMT loses the Taipei mayoral race, they lose all Taiwan,” said Chen, a fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. “This is the last bastion for KMT to fight for.”