McCarthy: That's one of the really tricky things and that's what the Senate weighed in on a couple years ago, in 1997, opposing any agreements at Kyoto that did not include developing nations. It is a fact that if you look at all these scenarios of future climate change, the increased rate of population growth is much greater in the developing than in the developed nations. The desire to increase standard of living in the developing nations is something we have to respect. So if you let those scenarios unfold, you move a few decades into this century before you see the developing nations becoming a larger contributor in terms of global emissions of greenhouse gasses.

I really am optimistic. I personally do not believe that Mr. Bush, if he wants to be reelected, and I presume he's thinking about that right now, can be reelected without taking this issue on. I believe that there is a strategy that his administration could unfold here, one that embraces industry, gets their concerns and provides incentives for industry. He can say, 'Look, I came to Washington campaigning that I knew how to lead and cut across partisan bickering and bring people together. The previously administration said they cared dearly about this issue but they were totally unable to lead. I'll show you how with their issue, I can lead.' The script is there. The man could play this. He could have an enormous international success without alienating people who supported him.

Q: What would President Bush's friends in the oil industry think of this?

McCarthy: The major oil companies have it in their vested interest now to be in the energy business, broadly defined. And there are going to be some ruffles.

I personally think that drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is not a good idea. There's no incentive for conservation right now. Now, I know Alaska very well and I know that they are desperate in Alaska for sources of taxes. That economy is heavily based on the flow of oil and it's running out. So no one pays taxes, no one wants to give up their gift from the state every year and they need more oil--that's the way they look at it. There are two powerful senators from Alaska. You have a president and vice president with long histories in oil. The chief of staff, Andrew Card, used to be a lobbyist for Detroit. But I'm not pessimistic.