McCarthy: That's not at all an uncommon mindset. Many of the models show that while agricultural capability is failing in parts of the tropical and sub-tropical regions, it may actually be benefited by these climate changes in parts of North America and in northern Europe. Now who could gain from that? Will the farmers gain, will the merchants of grains gain, if the people who really need the food are without resources to by it? How do you see that being globally beneficial to anyone?

It was interesting that many of the European newspapers in their lead stories on Tuesday, the day I was returning from Geneva, were calling attention to the potential of environmental refugees. In other words, as people in parts of the tropics and subtropics find that they can no longer sustain their livelihood, the direction to move will be pole-ward, away from the tropics and subtropics. Now you run into some pretty skinny land areas as you go south, so the migration paths of environmental refugees will be northward.

The question of the role that climate disruption will play in national unrest and regional strife in an increasingly interesting question. I believe that any scenario for international relations a few decades into the century will have to take into consideration the impacts there.

THC: In the talks on the Kyoto Protocol in the Netherlands in November, the negotiations in the end were unsuccessful because the EU and the U.S. could not agree to limits on greenhouse gasses. Do you think that this sort of disagreement will become more or less common in light of the documented possibilities of climate change?

McCarthy: I personally am optimistic about future resolution of the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. I can roll the clock back a year and a half, when there was discussion of putting off the sixth conference of the parties that was held in The Hague for two reasons. One was [that] our reports were not going to be out. And the second was the U.S. election. However, when people thought about it, they said, 'We'll know pretty well what's in your report even though it won't be finalized and after all the U.S. election will have occurred, so we'll know who the president is going to be.'