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Swing States, Turnout, Will Decide Election Outcome

With only one day to go before the election, the race for the presidency between Vice President Al Gore '69 and Texas Gov. George W. Bush will by decided by the outcome in 13 currently deadlocked swing states.

Most national polls give Bush a 3 to a 4 percentage point popular vote lead, but neither candidate has sewn up the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory.

According to the latest ABC News state-by-state analysis, Bush holds 25 states worth 213 electoral votes, while Gore leads in 12 states plus Washington, D.C. for 182 votes.

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But 13 key states are still up for grabs--and the Gore campaign's internal polling shows they are only behind by 1 point nationwide and within the margin of error in enough battleground states to pull out the election.

The states, identified by ABC News, range from New England to the Sun Belt, and include 143 electoral votes--enough to put either candidate well over the top.

In the past few days, both candidates have traveled frenetically to and from the swing states--Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Maine, Missouri, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico--in a last-minute effort to shore up traditional constituencies and appeal to undecided voters.

"Each campaign is striving to persuade undecided voters in the 13 or so states where the polls show an extremely tight race in which either candidate has a reasonable chance to prevail," said IBM Professor of Business and Government Roger B. Porter, an economic policy adviser in three Republican presidential administrations. "As a result, both candidates are attending rallies long into the night in these key states."

Gore campaigned in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin yesterday, trying to rally traditional Democratic labor and black voting bases.

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