But it is not likely. Americans probably need not fear (as one questioner proposed at an IOP event last week) "Phyllis Schlafly keynoting a convention nominating the Buchanan-Falwell ticket."
"The ultra-conservative faction exists, but I wouldn't put it at any more than 10 percent of the party." says Harry J. Wilson '93, the former president of the Harvard Republican Club.
And while the far right may be more vocal, the faction of the party led by Massachusetts Gov. William F. Weld '66, who takes a far more liberal position on social issues including gay rights and abortion, is also growing in prominence and size. Many predict that in 1996 the Republicans will be much more tolerant of the pro-abortion rights wing of the party.
In any case, one thing is clear--the current GOP leadership will be hearing from both the more conservative and more liberal wings if it loses the White House today. "I think we've got a couple-year fight ahead of us," Rollins says.
Some Democrats gleefully predict that the GOP that emerges from the fight will be badly split, opening the way for a Democratic lock on the White House.
Beckel, the Democratic analyst, says he forsees a long dry spell similar to his own party's 24-year drought.
"I think it's lost for a long time," he says.
But Rollins says he disagrees with such pessimistic predictions for the party, though he acknowledges that it could occur "if we basically let one wing of it take control."
Peterson, a registered Democrat, says he doubts a GOP version of the Democratic drought is imminent, since the Republican big tent is not so diverse or fractious as the Democrats.'
"The Democratic coalition is just more complex and contradictory overall than the Republican one is," Peterson says.
Peterson also says the "slower, stodgy process" of making changes in the GOP establishment will discourage a takeover by any one faction.
Wilson, too, dismisses a conservative seizure of control. Instead, he expects a more popular change of direction.
"I guarantee you that within the next four years a new commitment to social policy will emerge in the Republican party," Wilson says.
Wilson envisions a movement led by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp, former Education Secretary William J. Bennett and several Republican governors, and sees the elimination of Bush and his cronies.
"The do-nothing Republicans will be out of the picture," Wilson said.
Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, the Republican party over the next four years will be forced to confront the possibility of change. How it handles that confrontation may determine its success well into the 21st century.