When the Republican Party seized the White House in 1968, there were many who said the GOP was unlikely to give it up any time soon.
The Democratic Party, it was said, had become divided against itself. The 1972 nomination of George S. McGovern demonstrated that one wing of the party--an extreme liberal wing--had wrested control of the party from the hands of those who could form a coalition and get a Democratic president back in power.
Associate Professor of Government Mark A. Peterson, who teaches a course on the American Presidency, says 1972 was "the low point" for the Democratic party and, in a sense, "the Republicans looked invincible."
And with the exception of the election of Jimmy Carter, often considered a fluke brought on by Watergate, the Republicans were invincible, posting victories year after year. Although they kept firm hold on the Congress, the Democrats could not coalesce when it came to presidential politics, and were doomed to repeated failure.
If, as many have predicted, George Bush should lose, some fear that a similar phenomenon may transpire in increasingly divided GOP ranks.
Ronald Reagan during his eight-year presidency managed to put together a broad coalition that crossed party and class lines.
When the late Lee Atwater looked toward 1992, he envisioned a continuation of this "big tent"--a party that could encompass a similar broad partnership.
But Atwater's vision was not realized this year. Today's GOP includes the more-or-less moderate Bush contingent and the ultra-conservative wing that propelled Patrick J. Buchanan to prominence in the primary season. It also features a committed anti-abortion group holding fast against a growing pro-choice movement in the party. But the groups appear more fractious than united.
Buchanan's attacks on Bush during the primary campaign and his prime time convention speech may have alienated more moderate Republicans.
And most say the Buchanan factor played a key role in Bush's lagging in polls during much of the general election campaign.
"They played the convention as if the only place those televisions were going on were right-wing nutso households," says Democratic political analyst Bob Beckel.
But Bush Republicans were in charge last August in Houston. Why did the GOP bend over backward to accomodate a group which would harm its November chances?
"They've always been fearful of the right wing because they don't understand it," says former Reagan staffer Ed Rollins. "This was not a convention controlled by the right wing. This was a convention that was turned over to the right wing."
Some suggest the GOP may repeat that error on a larger level. Peterson said that one of the many possible scenarios for the party in the next four years is a radical swing like the Democrats' in 1972.
"It's possible that the Republicans would do the same thing and go all the way over to the right," Peterson says.
