MacFarquhar says Bush is giving the Chinese leadership almost everything it wants, but is getting practically nothing in return.

"I think the President has mishandled the China issue," MacFarquhar says, arguing that a clear statement of purpose and of moral outrage would have eliminated the perception on the part of the Chinese that America can be manipulated. The secret missions, he explains, have indicated that Bush "is prepared to do anything to maintain relations with China."

He adds that a Chinese diplomat recently defected to the U.S. and brought with him a document indicating that the Chinese leadership knows exactly how to manipulate American public opinion by timing releases of political prisoners.

Last month, while Congress was debating China's most-favored-nation status, China announced the release of 211 dissidents arrested during the crackdown. Since Bush announced his support for most-favored-nation status, new arrests have been reported. Observers say that those released are still under virtual house arrest.

Walder says most-favored-nation status should be made conditional on China's future human-rights behavior. He says, "I think they do respond to threats. I would like to see Bush be a little harsher."

Goldman points out that the United States is China's largest trading partner, with more than $8 billion total trade yearly if good shipped through Hong Kong to other destinations are taken into account. She says the U.S. should use those trade considerations to force political and human-rights concessions.

"This is not like under Mao. The Chinese government wants interaction with the United States," Goldman says. "If they lose most-favored-nation, they lose their low tariffs and their goods are no longer competitive in our markets."

But Walder says that many China Scholars are reluctant to cut too many ties, explaining that they do not want to curtail the excange of academic and cultural information. "The intellectuals I know in China are desperate to keep those links active," he says.

And MacFarquhar cautions that American pressure may have little effect on aging Chinese leaders who feel trapped by events beyond their control and whose sole ambition is to die while still holding the reigns of power.

Changes in Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union have left china Almost without any potential allies, he says, adding that Ceausescu's ignominious end frightened China's leaders out of their wits. MacFarquhar says the leadership "sent Party investigators back into the military to make sure this didn't happen to them."

He adds that even if the U.S. does nothing, the hardliners cannot repress liberalizing forces indefinirely. "That kind of social power can be restrained, oppressed--but not forever."