As for Nicaragua, said Neustadt, "It may be playing out China again, but it also may be playing out Cuba again."

"There are a whole set of presumptions built in. It goes back to the Truman Doctrine and you can't lose countries, and to the hemisphere is our hemisphere," he added.

But while Neustadt made it clear he felt Reagan is heading in the wrong direction on Nicaragua, the professor praised the president's "great political instinct on when you have to cut losses."

He said "Reagan came into office with a small set of deep convictions about things that were based on his reading of history....Most presidents pick up their strong feelings as they go along. What they encounter in office gets them committed. He came in with three or four real strong commitments. I don't really think Central America was one of them."

Neustadt described Reagan's commitments as strengthening defense, lowering taxes and getting rid of the social programs of the Great Society.

But in the end, he added, "It all depends on what history, real history, events, are going to do to you. This guy has also got luck.

Think of poor Jimmy Carter, the second oil shock. What happens? He gets inflation. Reagan gets the oil glut followed by the collapse of oil prices."