"He's caught between a rock and a hard place--he said he wouldn't leave the White House until the hostages were free, but he's churning at the bit to be campaigning. The Rose Garden is starting to get a little bit thorny," Orren chuckled.

"He can't cross Rte. 495 or he's broken his promise to the American public," Orren said. "We'll see if he edges across the thruway."

Despite Carter's promises, Orren said Kennedy staffers would love the chance to confront Carter head-on away from the White House. "It's very hard to wage a campaign as a monologue.... You've got to deal with a whole pack of reporters, and you're out there all alone, so they're all out after you," Orren said.

And should Carter venture forth, his appearance will win votes for his challenger, pollster Orren predicts. "If Carter gets out there, people will see this cold cucumber of a guy, and they'll see Ted Kennedy as just the opposite."

"We haven't done enough to communicate early on a sense of biography," Orren said. "The public knows all the bad things about Ted Kennedy, but they don't have the good sides fleshed out in their minds--the fact that he is a good family man, he has a great sense of humor, a zest for life, a wide circle of friends." In contrast, Carter "has no sense of humor. He's Spartan, he has a contempt for politics, a narrow circle of friends," Orren said.

Right now, things are brightening in the Kennedy camp. "I tried to talk with the people in fundraising thise week, and I couldn't get through. That's a good sign," Orren said. But the real message of the last week's primaries is that the election is far from in the bag for any candidate. "One half the delegates have been selected. Look how tumultous it's been up to now," Orren said. "Who is to think the second half would be any less wild?"

The Update Page is an occasional feature of The Crimson that brings up to date people, places and issues The Crimson has covered.

"When you need endorsements the most they're the hardest to get. In politics, people are like sniffes-they move the way the tide is going."