Some observers, including those looking on from the White House, called Kennedy's New York win a local phenomenon. Orren, who's been polling in the Empire State and elsewhere, disagreed. "It's an expression of strong disapproval of the President from people who want to send him a message," he said.

Along with Jews upset over Carter's handling of a United Nations vote on West Bank settlements, there was also "the vote upstate, the vote in Polish wards, the vote among Catholics." And, on the same day, there was the vote in Connecticut. "There are two main constituencies, Catholics and Yankees. Kennedy had not been doing well with those groups, but in Connecticut he ran phenomenally--he won almost every precinct in New Haven," Orren said.

The dual wins, however, have not prompted Kennedy to shift his speech writers to drafting his inaugural address. "They do demonstrate a greater receptivity to Kennedy, as well as a rebuke to Carter, though," Orren said.

Exit polls in New York and Connecticut showed voters trusted Kennedy more, an unusual position for a politician still suffering from a personal image shaped in large part by the accident at Chappaquiddick.

When voters say they trust Kennedy, "they don't mean he's a person of better character. I think Carter still beats us on the high moral standards," Orren said. "Instead, we're getting the professional trust as opposed to the truthfulness, better person aspect," he added.

"There's the contrast--Carter is now on his sixth version of where he stands on the budget. He's on a roller coaster, lurching from left to right.... People are starting to say, 'I'm not sure I trust Carter.'"

Orren's polls show "the public has never believed that Carter is an extremely competent leader. He was getting some high marks at the height of Iran, mostly for restraint.... But even then, people understood that he had failed his way into that."

And with that mistrust of Carter's issue stances and ability, another side of the character issue may be starting to emerge, Orren said. "Kennedy has taken his knocks and stood gallantly. It's the kind of admiration John Anderson is getting so much of on his side of the fence. You pay your price for a while, but it may end up helping you."

Orren's optimism is tempered by reality. "Chappaquiddick is not something that's going to disappear.... A certain portion of the population will never vote for Kennedy because he doesn't meet their standards of moral rectitude.

"If he's going to win, other factors will have to come to dominate," Orren predicted. "Now you are starting to see people weight those sorts of issues against competency questions.... We haven't had that before--instead there's been intense scrutiny on Ted Kennedy the man. Up till now, people have been voting up or down on Ted Kennedy's history."

Kennedy and his staff made a conscious decision to start stressing the issues, especially stances like gas rationing and wage-price controls where Kennedy stood apart from the President beginning with the early-winter Georgetown speech, Orren said.

"Earlier on, there had been a lot of general talk about Kennedy being the stronger leader.... There were a lot of position papers and discussion of the issues, but a campaign creates its own emphasis." Kennedy said "nothing new in the Georgetown speech, except for rationing and wage-price controls We had discussed coming out for those things before, and tried to figure out what the timing was," Orren said.

The strategy paid off just in time for Kennedy. Pointing to California, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey as must states, Orren predicted the race would probably go down to the last primaries. Outside factors--especially cross-over voting for Rep. John Anderson (R-Ill.) might affect tomorrow's voting in Wisconsin. But by the time the race reaches Pennsylvania, it should be a "showdown," he said.

"Pennsylvania was the most important primary in 1976, and it probably will be again in 1980.... There's plenty of time for a very intense campaign. And the state is fascinating--it is northeastern, but it has lots of rural areas, big cities and many suburbs. It's a great stage for the showdown."

Carter aides said last week that despite the wins in the Northeast, Kennedy was too far behind to ever catch up. "It's not all over," Orren insisted, adding that the New York results may force Carter out on the campaign trail.