Bernstein: One of the questions that I have here is whether what has happened in Indochina recently--the conclusion of the friendship and military treaty between Vietnam and the Soviet Union--might not have been avoidable if the United States had taken a somewhat more positive attitude toward Vietnam. One has the sense the Vietnamese have now pushed themselves or rather thrown themselves, into the arms of the Soviets.
Nye: Let's go back to the beginning of the Carter administration when Assistant Secretary of State Holbrook made a number of initiatives toward recognition of Vietnam and the difficulty then was that the Vietnamese were holding back; they wanted to be paid a price for it. Subsequently, events changed. We were less willing to pay a price and we also saw some costs to recognition of Vietnam, one of which was the effects that it might have had on the developing relationship between us and China. But I think to read history of the last two years fairly, we did take certain steps and the Vietnamese essentially were trying to have their cake and eat it, too; and I think they missed the boat.
Walker: I also think we would have to be much less than optimistic on any future U.S.-Vietnamese relations. I'm very doubtful as to how good a so-called revolutionary regime in Hanoi could see itself in the future with American relations. Whether we could have actually supplanted Chinese relations, I have my doubts.
Q: How high is the United States' stature in Asia at the present? The United States has had problems with the Philippine government. It just seems as if, in recent times, the American influence in Asia has declined.
Nye: Well, I guess the question of stature depends on what country and what perspective you're looking at. I would believe the loss of American presence which was predicted at the end of Vietnam has not come about. The feeling that the Americans will control events in fine detail has certainly changed. But if you start with our interests in East Asia, I would argue the most important interest is our relationship with Japan--the third largest economy in the world. I would say the American-Japanese between the Soviets and the Japanese is something worth noticing here. I think our relationship with Japan, in fact, has not been weakened in the post-Vietnam period but is probably somewhat enhanced. In that sense, we're not doing that badly. Now, in particular countries--for example, how critical American guarantees are in the Philippines and Thailand--I think that may be somewhat less in the post-Vietnam period but I don't think it's eroded to that extent that there's nothing of residual value there. I think in particular, some of the criticism that's been going on in the Philippines is shadow-boxing over what rent will be paid for the American military base.
This is an unedited transcript from an interview conducted by Clinton C. Collins '81 and Joseph Z. Cortes '81. The remainder of the discussion will be aired on Tuesday, February 20, at 5:30 p.m. on WHRB, 93.5 FM.
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