To fully equip Negroes to compete for the jobs they would reach with continued present progress, 68.0 percent of all Negroes should be high school graduates by 1985; 14.7 percent should be college graduates. (see Table 4). To equip Negroes for full economic equality, 74.9 percent should be high school graduates, 16.7 percent college graduates. To be sure, these figures assume that every Negro must have the median education for his job. Some will be able to hold the better jobs without the appropriate diploma. But the education of whites is increasing rapidly as well, and will not fall far short of the standards underlying the above figures so the competition will be keen.
TABLE 4 The educational achievements of our Negro population are rising rapidly (see Table 5). In 1952, only 17 percent of nonwhites had a complete high school education. By 1965, 38 percent had completed high school, and among the current young people, slightly more than half now finish high school. The number of college graduates is also rising rapidly. Among whites, the gains are less dramatic, so there has been a catchup in Negro educational achievement. TABLE 5 *Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964. However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past. From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality. In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology. As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development. Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance. The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants. Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible