As it so happens, one bad quarter was one too many. Against Penn, the Bulldogs squandered a 10-point lead in the fourth and then gave up a bunch more for good measure, losing to the Quakers, 37-25.

The loss puts a big dent in Yale’s Ivy League title hopes. But by no means is the team out yet—it just needs to win every game for the rest of the year and count on some losses from Penn and Harvard. And that can certainly happen.

Though the Bulldogs need to win every game they play, that does not mean they need to worry about every one of them. Against Columbia, there’s no reason Yale should work up an elevated blood pressure.

The Lions have struggled all season, losing in a convincing shutout to a Dartmouth team that has had issues of its own.

Death and taxes may be the only certainties in this world, but another sloppy Columbia performance isn’t far off.

Prediction: Yale 30, Columbia 13

PENN (4-2, 3-0 Ivy) at BROWN (5-1, 2-1)

I think Harvard is really lucky that it played and beat Brown so early in the season. The more I watch Bears football, the more impressed I am.

Yes, Brown’s last two wins have come against Princeton and Cornell, but that doesn’t detract from how well the team is playing. The Bears are clearly talented, and a win over Holy Cross proves that. Kyle Newhall-Caballero is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he can be a threat on any given week.

At this point in the season, no one is surprised to see Penn sitting on a 3-0 Ivy record. What is so shocking about these three wins for the preseason favorites is how it got them.

It doesn’t seem to matter who the Quakers are playing. In all three league games, Penn has been just good enough.

It started with a last-second, come-from-behind win at Dartmouth. It continued against lowly Columbia, when the Quakers needed a last-minute touchdown to avoid overtime with the winless Lions.

And last week against Yale at home, it happened again. Penn was down by 10 going into the fourth before an explosive quarter opened up the game. The Quakers won, 37-25, but the game was much closer than the score indicated.

Despite its league record, Penn is a weakened team, and it has fallen well outside the FCS Top 25. You could say that the Quakers have gotten lucky with their close wins, but when you’re that lucky, you’re probably just good.

But you can’t keep counting on wins like the ones Penn has had. It will eventually catch up to you.