Dwayne Johnson at the 2017 Oscars rehearsals.

It’s time for the Oscars—a golden night of Hollywood self-congratulation. I salute this pageant of back-patting by patting some backs myself. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2017 Academy Awards.

Best Picture Nominees:

“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”

And the winner is: “La La Land.” Almost indisputably. There’s nothing the Academy loves more than movies about itself and the city it feeds upon. A good movie, probably great, but definitely not the best picture of the year. This award should go to either “Manchester by the Sea” or “Moonlight,” two heartbreaking tales of loss and love in two very different contexts. Compared to either of them, “La La Land” seems a little empty. It’s hard to care about the struggles of two attractive artists striving for recognition, when there are other movies dealing with difficult themes like sexuality, race, and extreme loss.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”

And the winner is: Casey Affleck. From a purely artistic perspective, Affleck is able to convey the heartbreak and indignities of death and loss with a subtle and sensitive touch. However, his incredible performance is undoubtedly marred by the resurfaced allegations of sexual harassment—although the Academy may not pay attention. I don’t know how to feel about this one.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

And the winner is: Natalie Portman. Her performance as Jackieis hailed as the best of her career, with the New York Times calling her “perfect.” But never count Meryl Streep out of an Oscar race, and this year, never count “La La Land” out of any of these categories.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

And the winner is: Mahershala Ali. And it had better be. Ali had a smash hit 2016, also starring as the villain Cottonmouth in Netflix’s “Luke Cage” series. His part as Juan, a crack dealer who takes in the main character, Chiron, as his own son is unforgettable. He embraces the complexity of the role with tenderness and heart.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

And the winner is: Viola Davis. Harris is certainly excellent in “Moonlight” and could easily win this award—her depiction of a drug-addled mother inspires both disgust and sympathy. Spencer could take this home as well: Hidden Figures” is classic Oscar bait. But given Davis’s full-hearted performance in “Fences,” Harris and Spencer may not be the winners of the night.

Best Animated Feature Film

“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”

And the winner is: “Zootopia.” No other film on this list was as much of a critical and box office hit, and deservedly so: the film is fun for all ages, with sight gags and cute animals for the kids, and more involved humor and even some thought-provoking plot for the parents. “Moana” has its charms as well, and is more of a visual spectacle, but it’s hard to compete with the charisma of Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde.

Best Directing

Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”

And the winner is: Damien Chazelle. The directing category might just be another stop on the “La La Land” victory tour. Jenkins or Lonergan deserve this more than Chazelle, and neither of these directors have gotten much attention from the Academy before. It would lovely to see their talent recognized.

All of this is still up in the air (although it is nearly statistically impossible for “La La Land” not to win at least one Oscar), but here’s my take on how Sunday night will go down. Tune in Feb. 26 at 7:30pm to find out just how right my predictions were!