Flyby: As far as you know, are you the only person who has done statistical Oscar predictions based on data instead of just general consensus?

BZ: Last year, I was the only person, because I scoured the Internet and did not find a single other [Oscar prediction website] as far as I know. This year, there are a couple others that have just started. I think it's all just for fun, and it's great to see other people getting in on the mix. I don't necessarily agree with their models mathematically. I think a lot of other people are using data that they expect to be predictive [but is not]. A good example is box office data, for Best Picture. You think, "Oh, a movie is more popular with viewers, it's more likely to win Best Picture." Unfortunately, the math doesn't hold. The Huffington Post Model heavily relies on that. But, at the end of the day, I might prove more right than them, they might prove more right than me, just by random chance.

Flyby: In your findings, what is the biggest predictor of Oscar winnings?

BZ: It depends on the category. For Best Picture, right now, I believe it is the win for the Directors' Guild. BAFTAs are huge in a lot of categories. If I had to pick one that was overall the closest mirror to the Oscars, it's easily the BAFTAs. There is no polling from the Academy. If there were, that would make my job so much easier, and the percentages could be a lot higher.

Flyby: Are there any awards shows that seem to not be a good predictor for Oscar wins at all?

BZ: Oh, sure, a good example is the Golden Globes. I have all the data in my spreadsheet, and so last year I checked it, this year I checked it again, the answer is still no. When you do the multiple regression, you come out with a negative coefficient. The Golden Globes are famous, historically, for not being a great predictor.

Flyby: Have you ever thought of applying your methods to other awards shows, like the Emmys?

BZ: Yes, I have, and right now there's just not enough data for the Emmys, the Grammys, the Tonys. What you need is a lot of other people, award shows, critic scores, and it just doesn't exist for everything else I've seen.

Flyby: What are your plans for the Oscars this weekend?

BZ: I will be watching them in Mather. Last year I hosted an Oscar party for the freshman class [and] I got about 70 people, that was a lot of fun. I don't know how well this will go, there's an enormous amount of chance, part art and part science. Science at best could predict the majority of the Oscars, but I fully expect that there's still a lot of reason to be nervous Sunday night. I think that's why they're so much fun.

This interview has been edited for concision.