An at-large bid, though, is far from a sure thing at this point. Harvard is currently tied with Michigan State at No. 16 in the Pairwise Rankings, usually a direct prognosticator of the NCAA tournament field.
And because of automatic bids to the league champions of the CHA and MAAC—leagues whose teams do not typically challenge for at-large berths—the Crimson would have to move up to at least No. 14 to make the tournament as an at-large selection.
Harvard would need to climb even higher if it wanted to acquire insurance against underdogs in other leagues stealing conference championships and the automatic bids that go along with them. The Crimson was one of those “bracket-breakers” last season, when it upset Cornell to win the ECAC title and bumped Alaska-Fairbanks from the tournament field.
Projecting the Field
Although the tournament doesn’t begin for more than a month, it seems relatively clear as to where a few teams may be headed simply because of where the regional tournaments are located.
Because of historical precedent and an NCAA rule, any teams hosting regional tournaments that make the field must be placed at their respective home tournaments. And the host schools at each of the four regional tournaments have excellent chances of making the NCAAs: Minnesota (tied for 6th in the Pairwise), Boston University (tied-6th), Michigan (12th), and Providence (tied-13th).
So where would Harvard go if it makes it?
Well, the top four teams in the nation will be the No. 1 seeds and are assured of being placed as close to home as possible, with the highest-rated of the No. 1 seeds getting first priority.
There’s a good chance that Cornell could be a No. 1 seed, which could impact where the Crimson would go because, in a policy reaffirmed by a report earlier this month, the NCAA selection committee tries to avoid first-round games between conference opponents.
So, if Cornell is a top seed in Worcester, Harvard won’t be there with it.
Because of the four-regional format, the committee will have an easier time determining seeds. It has said in a report that it will simply rank the teams, No. 1 through No. 16, and split that up into four groups. The top four will be No. 1 seeds, the next four will be No. 2 seeds, and so on.
In all likelihood, Harvard would be a No. 4 seed if it made the tournament, meaning it would face a difficult task in the first round: a No. 1 seed playing, in theory, relatively close to home.
If the tournament began today, the No. 1 seeds would be Colorado College, Maine, Cornell and New Hampshire, in decreasing order. That would put CC in Minneapolis, Maine in Providence, Cornell in Worcester, and New Hampshire in Ann Arbor, Mich.
Harvard, if it was in the tournament, would most likely be looking at opening up with Maine in a rematch of last season’s NCAA first round game.
Last season, the teams at the West Regional were, on the whole, stronger than those in the East, largely because the surprising Crimson and MAAC representative Quinnipiac were in Worcester due to regionalization.
This year, though, five of the top eight teams in the PWR are from the East. But all of that, of course, is subject to change—along with Harvard’s chances of making the tournament-—depending upon how the Crimson and other contending teams fare in the coming weeks.
—Staff writer Jon P. Morosi can be reached at morosi@fas.harvard.edu.