Harvard’s RPI was 61st in the nation following Saturday’s games—better than any recent Ivy champion. This bodes well that its seeding will match or beat the 2000 Dartmouth team, which had the nation’s 68th-best RPI and earned a 13th seed—the highest ever for an Ivy team. The 2001 Penn team had the 99th-best RPI and earned a 15th seed.
As of Saturday, only Harvard and Liberty had earned NCAA berths, leaving plenty of the 31 NCAA at-large berths to be decided. The conference tournament results could shift Harvard’s seed up or down. To get a higher seed, Harvard will need teams with a lower RPI than its own to win their conference tournaments. These teams will be seeded below Harvard, and push the Crimson’s seeding up.
At press time, there were 14 conferences that lacked a team still eligible for the automatic berth with a higher RPI than Harvard’s. This puts Harvard in solid position for a 13 seed..
But three of those conferences—the Horizon League, the Mid-Continent Conference, and the Patriot League—all had teams within 11 spots of Harvard in the RPI, and these teams could be seeded above Harvard if either their RPI improves due to conference tournament wins, or if they are seeded above the Crimson due to criteria other than the RPI. The advantage other teams have is in victories over Top 100 teams, of which Harvard has none. Harvard’s advantage over the other teams is that it’s undefeated since January—an undefeated record in the last 10 games before the tournament is looked upon favorably by the committee.
Where To?
Harvard’s chances of staying close to home for NCAAs are slim, and Harvard Coach Kathy Delaney-Smith is just fine with that.
“I’m partial to the sun, and the warm climates,” she said.
Basketball, unlike NCAA soccer for instance, puts a much higher priority on competitive balance than reducing traveling costs. Thus, it’s much more likely to ship teams across the country.
The only nearby schools in high national standing are UConn, Boston College and Notre Dame. UConn, whose RPI is third in the nation, will be too high a seed to play the Crimson. BC, whose RPI is 29th, will be too a low a seed—barring a miraculous run through the Big East tournament. Notre Dame, with an RPI of 23rd, is also an outside possibility.
Harvard is much more likely headed for the mountains and prairies than the sun belt. The vast majority of teams in contention for three and four seeds come from the Big 12—namely Kansas St., Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St. and Colorado. Conference leader Oklahoma is a likely top seed.
Southeastern-located possibilities include North Carolina, South Carolina, Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech. Florida International, a team with an RPI of 13, is an outside possibility, but the Golden Panthers have gotten minimal recognition from the polls and are unlikely to get much NCAA recognition because they only have two wins over Top 50 teams.
There’s a lot of subjectivity involved in the selection process, and whatever happens, Harvard will have to wait till next Sunday at 5 p.m. to find out.