“Harvard is probably the best case because our black students hardly need affirmative action,” he added. “It’s other universities that abuse this principle... In almost every case universities go far beyond tipping the balance—it’s decisive.”

The unusual strength of its applicant pool would likely insulate schools like Harvard Law School from declines in minority student populations even if the Michigan policy is struck down, said Climenko Professor of Law Charles J. Ogletree Jr.

“The good news in the case is that both parties have spent a fair amount of time focusing on the Harvard plan for diversity in admissions, and I suspect the court will find a good reason to look at the Harvard model as one example of how to achieve excellence in higher education,” he said.

But Ancheta said minority populations at many other schools would drop significantly if the court rules against Michigan, as has already happened at the University of California, where a state referendum prohibited the use of affirmative action in admissions decisions.

He speculated that the decision of the court will be very close and depend on the swing votes of Justices Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony M. Kennedy.

“At this point, there are plenty of legal arguments on both sides dealing with Bakke and mixed results in lower courts, so the decision is really going to turn on how the swing votes go,” Ancheta said.

Oral arguments will be held in two to three months, and the court should reach its decision by June.