Margin of Victory—Athletes on bubble teams will often say, “We wanted to make a statement to the committee by winning big today.” The reality of this is that the NCAA would never allow a selection criteria that encouraged teams to run up the score against hapless opponents.

League and Tournament Standing—In the three sports mentioned, final standings in league or conference tournaments only matter as far as they affect the previously stated criteria. A win is a win, no matter the conference ramifications.

Polls—Polls tend to be much more reactionary and tend to put more weight in recent results than the NCAA selection criteria. Though they can often be very good predictors of what the committee will do, they have no direct bearing.

Women’s Soccer Breakdown

Current Record—7-7-1

Poll Ranking—4th in Northeast region (NSCAA)

Remaining Games—Columbia, Nov. 9

Field Size—64

Selection Show—Nov. 11, 4:30 p.m., ESPNEWS

Good News—The Crimson played the toughest schedule in its region by far. The seven losses are against teams with a combined win percentage of 75 percent. Only three of its opponents thus far—BU, Brown, and Vermont—are below .500. Harvard has wins against Ivy auto-qualifier Princeton and likely Northeast Conference champion Central Connecticut State.

Bad News—Harvard’s record would be among the weakest in the field of 64. In recent years, the Crimson has had more marquee wins.

History Tells Us—Harvard’s in shockingly good shape to make the tournament for a team that’s presently .500. The Crimson is the fourth best team in the Northeast behind UConn, Dartmouth and Yale—all of whom beat the Crimson. Harvard’s in even better shape than Hartford, who it lost to as well, since the Hawks have had so many bad in-conference losses. The region’s top five teams all made the tournament in 2000 when the field was 48 teams, and the region’s top seven teams made it in 2001, the first year with 64. While regional parity isn’t technically an NCAA selection goal, it inevitably matters because there aren’t enough interregion games to accurately distinguish teams on opposite coasts.

How to Get In—Harvard must beat Columbia and finish above .500 to even be considered for selection. Making the tournament should be in the Crimson’s hands.

Other Notes—UConn and Dartmouth appear to be in good shape to host the first and second rounds of the tournament. A question is where Harvard and Yale would be placed, as the NCAA will typically avoid intraconference matches in the first two rounds. A possible scenario is that Yale, the higher-ranked team, will get to stay at UConn, while Harvard will get shipped out of region for the first time ever.

Field Hockey Breakdown