Another major finding of the study was that cervical cancer screening is still a feasible investment in countries with high incidences of AIDS.

“Screening is most effective for women in their mid to late thirties, most of whom have survived the peak fatality years for AIDS and have an otherwise normal life expectancy,” Goldie says.

The Model

At the heart of the analysis was a computer model designed to simulate clinical trials on a hypothetical population of South African women. South Africa was chosen because of the large amount of available data and because it is a relatively advanced developing nation, according to Director of Risk Communication at the Center for Risk Analysis David Ropeik.

However, the model can be adapted to other countries as well, Ropeik says, and the team is currently awaiting grant money from the NIH to develop their model for other nations.

“The next step is to develop paradigms for different types of countries,” says Dr. Goldie. “We are hoping to have three to five countries done in the next few years.”

The model incorporates parameters from numerous studies done over the last ten years, as well as data from an ongoing study led by Wright, a world-renowned expert on HPV.