O’Connor predicts that the race would yield a modest turnout of no more than 20 percent.
The low expected turnout might favor Lynch, according to Clark.
“Lynch can easily identify his supporters because they are more geographically compact, he can rely on a more tightly-knit voter base and especially unions that will dig out voters on Election Day,” Clark explains.
But Joyce’s spokesperson, Doug Ruben, deflects any claims that Joyce will encounter trouble trying to collect votes in his stomping ground of Milton, just outside Boston.
“Joyce actually represents a large chunk of the city. I don’t anticipate us having trouble in getting our voters to the booth,” Ruben says.
The district has changed so much—both ethnically and physically, having undergone three redistricting plans after the 1970, 1980 and 1990 censuses—this is hard to make any predictions since the district has undergone a sea change since Moakley was first elected.
The District
When Moakley, then a Boston City Councilor, ran for Congress in 1972, South Boston was primarily white, Irish and Catholic, O’Connor says.
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