So the candidates have tailored their messages appropriately, advancing their reform plans for prescription drug coverage, Social Security and education.

"What will determine who wins those swing voters is exactly the question Ronald Reagan asked, 'Are you better off today than you were four years ago?'" Wilcox says. "Bush has to come out and win this. A draw will go to Gore."

In past weeks, Bush has made education "his top priority," says Ken Lisaius, a campaign spokesperson.

In speeches throughout so-called "battleground" states like Ohio and Michigan, Bush has stuck to a lesson plan: He says he'd make sure states test the reading and math competencies of students in school that serve poorer areas. If schools didn't improve, he'd make vouchers an option for parents. He also says he'll help states double the number of charter schools in three years. The total cost: about $48 billion. Bush uses poll-tested phrases like "education recession" to describe a school mess, varyingly blamed on bureaucrats, distant teachers' unions, and the culture.

Though doctrinaire conservatives aren't thrilled with the prospect of enlarging the federal government's role in education, they see Bush's plan as far preferable to Gore's.

But Gore has an advantage. Partially because of Democrats' continual support for spending money on schools and teachers, likely voters tell pollsters they are more sympathetic to Gore's proposals.

The vice president would spend part of about $115 billion to boost teacher salaries, provided the instructor is certified. He'd force under-performing schools to shape up. He also promises to triple the number of charter schools. Gore would also allow parents to invest in a tax-free savings account for college tuition.