Newsweek has been the most blatantly inaccurate, giving Gore six to 10 percent post-convention leads in August and early September, then taking several pages to explain why he's so popular. Three things should make people question the credibility of these polls. First, the results of these polls have generally shown more support for Gore than most others, including Reuters, Gallup, and the Battleground poll. Second, the headlines are based solely on registered voters--a fact that might be easy to overlook, given that it took five or more paragraphs to discover. Third, Newsweek has lauded Gore with such headlines as, "Candidate's speech propel him to a lead," (August 19th) when the margin of error indicated a tie, demonstrating either an ignorance of what their polls mean, or a reluctance to speak about it.

Who is polled is probably the most important factor in evaluating the credibility of what polls have to say. According to Gallup, registered voters, the group Newsweek profiles most prominently, tend to be more Democratic than those who actually vote. Not surprisingly, the Newsweek survey leans to the left of more proven polls.

Over the last two weeks, Newsweek has begun to mention the results among likely voters. But without mentioning the margin of error among them, the polls remain meaningless.

I should point out one other detail. Seeing the same poll results each morning shouldn't reinforce people's beliefs about the strength of a candidate's lead. It turns out that the most cited polls, those coming out each day from Voter.com and Gallup, are rolling surveys. They represent three to four day trends. When a new poll comes out, it's actually 67 to 75 percent an old poll. So, not surprisingly, the polls don't change much day to day.

Seeing the same results over a short period could cause people to think, incorrectly, that one candidate is more ineffective, or resilient, than he actually is. If a candidate comes out with a major new initiative, as Bush did recently with his "Real Plans for Real People", the effect of the initiative won't appear for about a week. This isn't because the candidate's message isn't working. Its simply because of the way polls are constructed.

I hope public misperception and media ignorance of statistics don't adversely influence the electorate's perceptions, and ultimately, erroneously determine our choice in November.

Beau A.J. Briese is an undergraduate in Kirkland House.