Conventional search wisdom suggests that the Corporation will be on the prowl for people with strong University ties, in their mid-40s to early 50s--people who, like Rudenstine, have the potential to spend a decade on the job.

Many of the other possibilities suggested--Dean of the Harvard Medical School (HMS) Joseph B. Martin, Duke University President Nannerl O. Keohane and Columbia University President George Rupp--are past that conventional age limit.

However, if the Corporation were enthusiastic enough about any of these candidates, it might be possible to ignore any concerns about age.

In addition, the average term of the university president is getting shorter. Slichter suggests that the next president may not stay even a decade.

"A president's decision has to do with what he wants to do and what he's done," Slichter says. "The next natural break point might be five years from now. It's a killing job."

Experts note that in recent years, university presidential searches have turned more and more to the presidents of other universities.

According to Madeleine F. Green '67, vice president of the American Council on Education, in 1998 about 20 percent of university presidents had already held the top post at another university. At private research universities like Harvard, that number inches closer to 30 percent, she says.

She hypothesizes that this is because universities are no longer as willing to take risks on candidates with less experience.