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Polls Are Everywhere, And as Volatile as Ever

"I wouldn't be in the polling business if I didn't believe that a randomly selected group of people accurately reflected public opinion," he adds.

But both Bender and Dan Balz, chief political correspondent for The Washington Post, name Gallup as the most widely fluctuating polling source this year. Bender says that other polling agencies, such as Zogby and ABC News, have been relatively stable in their polls.

Thomas E. Patterson, Bradlee professor of government and the press at the KSG, says he thinks the polls are accurate: a representative picture of an electorate that hasn't made up its mind.

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"The Republican convention gave Bush a huge boost, and Gore got a boost from the Democratic convention too," he says. "Both candidates have had a lot of trouble with the independent base, and that's where the volatility lies."

Patterson said that the difference between polls is not really volatility but merely a discrepancy in methods of polling.

In addition, he says that polling agencies often admit their results are significantly inaccurate about 5 percent of the time.

"By chance, 1 out of 20 polls will be off the mark, and we make a big deal out of that one poll," he says.

In the end, some ask, does all of this talk of technique and accuracy make a difference?

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