"Milosevic will accept political defeat for only one reason--to avoid real military defeat," Drnovsek said.

"After all his talk and propaganda, it's very difficult for him to turn around and [tell his people], 'okay, let's talk about peace now.'"

The second alternative, according to Drnovsek, is to accelerate the war--by increasing the bombings of Belgrade and eventually sending ground troops into Kosovo.

"It's the logic of war," he said. "Aside from whether [NATO's involvement in Kosovo] is good or bad, it is the logic of the situation. After the first stage, the second must follow, and then the third."

The idea that such involvement was inevitable drew concern from some members of the audience.

"Should the same approach be used in all countries with ethnic conflicts? The Tibetans of China, the Kurds of Iraq?" one audience member asked Drnovsek.

The prime minister replied that he thought Kosovo was a special case because of the potential for long-term instability in the Balkans.