James Coburn, Affliction: As Nolte'sabusive father, Coburn gives a raw, freewheelingperformance that shows his range after more than40 years in the business. It's his first Oscarnomination, and all those who have seen the filmagree he is the true central character.

Robert Duvall, A Civil Action:Judi-Dench-Syndrome. The Academy passed thedeserving Duvall over last year in TheApostle for Nicholson in As Good As ItGets. They might give it to him this year, buthe's undeserving. His role in A CivilAction was weak--he tried to add randomeccentricities to his "bad-guy" persona, but itjust made him even less sympathetic.

Ed Harris, The Truman Show: I don'tunderstand. I loved The Truman Show, butJim Carrey made the movie everything it was--sothey nominate Harris and not Carrey? Harris getsnominated for wearing a beret and boomingall-to-metaphorical lines without the leastinflection?Geoffrey Rush, Shakespeare in Love. Ireally don't understand. Why Rush and notMurray in Rushmore: Rush's bumbling fool inthe movie was amusing, and he got to show offrotted teeth but no stretch here. AfterShine, this seemed like improve on a dayoff.

Billy Bob Thornton, A Simple Plan: Abrilliant, complex performance gets Thorntonnominated for a film virtually nobody saw. Toobad, because A Simple Plan was a fantasticdrama--the type of movie Hollywood should producebut purposely abandons (note the lack ofpromotion). As the lead character's slightlyretarded brother, Thorton convinces us that heultimately cannot find a reason to live when aninnocent scheme spirals into disaster--andconvinces him that life has just become one lieafter another.

WHO WILL WIN: Ick. Probably Duvallbecause of Academy Guilt. But look for Coburn ifthere's to be an upset.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Thornton. He's aterrific actor (despite the controversysurrounding his domestic life)