If Harvard were to return its payout to even 4.5 percent for fiscal year 1999, there would be an extra $6 million specifically earmarked for Faculty of Arts and Sciences (FAS) financial aid.

This payout--well within the bounds of traditional policy--would enable Harvard to spend roughly the same amount of new money per student on financial aid as Princeton and MIT, and far more than Yale, Stanford or Penn.

A policy of making competitive offers on a case-by-case basis this spring cost the University between $750,000 and $1.5 million, taken from existing discretionary funds. Formalizing this fall's changes could mean at least an extra $2 million per class, though there are still no plans to pay for this increase with an endowment payout hike.

Holding Out and Giving In

All semester, Harvard officials admitted that the fiscal potential for change existed, but refused to comment on the possibility of making their own changes.

Rudenstine's was the loudest voice all semester, beginning with a February speech to alumni where he introduced the phrase "shouting distance" into financial aid parlance.

According to Miller, this phrase was translated into competitive generosity within the current aid system, combined with longer office hours as Byerly Hall explained its informal outreach to concerned parents and students.

Miller said generally about 30 percent of students offered aid packages call or write back requesting an adjustment. This year, as admitted students read about additional aid in other schools' admit packages that percentage jumped to 70.

But he and others now echo what Harvard officials said at the time: with a mountain of educational prestige, the University could survive a semester's learning curve. Not wishing to endanger its financial reserves with an unsustainable knee-jerk reaction, Harvard bided its time. And 8 out of 10 admitted students agreed, accepting Harvard's acceptance.

But now, officials say, it is time for a substantive change--vague "shouting distance" pledges won't last forever in a world where other universities commit themselves to higher aid levels.

The End of Inaction

The exact shape of next fall's changes cannot be predicted before this summer's aid review begins, but certain aspects of Harvard's aid policy are likely to remain static.

According to Miller and Rudenstine, the way Harvard calculates family need will not be changed by the committee's recommendation. The process could, however, be altered by a separate action by the College Scholarship Service, which sets up basic need calculations nationwide.

Harvard will also not turn to merit-based scholarships like Penn's, they said. But these attempts to draw a small but reliable core of top students might be in the next wave of aid changes at other universities--particularly those with less ability to pay.

However, what is likely to change at Harvard is the percentage of aid met by self-help requirements. Miller said this portion of the student's burden might be absorbed by an increase in direct grants, or reduced using outside scholarship funds on the Stanford model.

Officials will commit to few other details about next fall's changes. The worry remains that, without a dire drop in admissions yield, the University might only be as generous as it needs to be.

Instead of offering a generous new system of aid, an 80 percent yield may mean Harvard can avoid sweeping changes because "shouting distance" seems--at least for the moment--close enough.