Best Supporting Actor

The supporting actor awards, it's generally agreed, are where new talent has the best chance of getting recognized, in which case Greg Kinnear (As Good As It Gets) has the advantage. However, the Academy also likes old stars who make noteworthy comebacks, and Burt Reynolds (Boogie Nights) did win the Golden Globe.

WILL WINGreg Kinnear. He's relatively new, he plays a charming gay guy, and all of the odds are against As Good As It Gets for the other awards.

SHOULD WINRobin Williams. Good Will Hunting isn't his best performance, but it's one of his most heartfelt since Dead Poets' Society. People forget that he's not just the funniest man in movies; he's also a damn good actor.

Best Supporting Actress

WILL WINProbably Gloria Stuart, because she's old, likable, and has that Juliette Binoche-approved "Win on the Coattails of the Big One!" going. Her only threats are Moore, who alone in this group has the studio and indie crowds behind her, and Basinger, who won the Globe, tied with Stuart at SAG, and represents L.A. Confidential's only hope at a major score.

SHOULD WINMoore belongs on anyone's list of the five best actresses working today. In Boogie Nights, she finds not only the urgent maternalism but the delicacy of a porn industry queen. Don't try this at home.

Best Picture

WILL WINTitanic seems to have it locked up, and far be it from me to disagree. Remember, though, that in 1981, a great big historical epic called Reds, directed by Warren Beatty, showed up with 12 nominations and lost to a small British crowd-pleaser called Chariots of Fire, which had nothing going for it but humility and good will. That's a story that The Full Monty producers will be trying earnestly not to forget.

SHOULD WINI cried during Titanic almost as much as Kate Winslet did, but L.A. Confidential also encapsulated a precise cultural, moral and aesthetic moment from our past and did so with characters who were discernible (and dissectable) human beings.

Best Picture

The Academy goes ultra-lite this year, reveling shamelessly in feel-gooders to the tune of As Good As It Gets, Good Will Hunting and The Full Monty. Titanic is its idea of tragic ballast: never mind such trifles as lame dialogue, clunky plot contrivances and characters that are closer to caricatures.

WILL WINTitanic. The farce will happen. Grin and bear it.

SHOULD WINL.A. Confidential. A smart, taut throwback to the best tradition of noir, it far outranks its competitors in subtlety and style.

Best Director