The problem is that any of the top six seeds could come out of this region. And inconsistency plagues the lot. UCLA (21-7) has Toby Bailey, Cameron Dollar, J.R. Henderson, and Jelani McCoy. They also have a whopping 18.4 turnovers a game average and sad 33.2 percent three-point shooting.
Cincinnati (25-7), the preseason number one in the country, can only rely on stud forward Danny Fortson. If the other players step up, such as bomber Darnell Burton and the versatile but erratic Damon Flint, the Bearcats will be dangerous. Otherwise, they'll be the team that has lost to puzzling opponents and have fallen to number 10.
Fourth-seeded Clemson (21-9) seemed to have top-five potential earlier this season but hasn't lived up to it and is sagging now, and Tulsa (23-9) always does better in the tournament than people expect. The Golden Hurricane (now there's an auric mascot!) has been in the Sweet 16 three out of the last four years and guard Shea Seals is a star.
Even Iowa State (20-8), another team with a natural disaster motif (the Cyclones), might be able to ride the back of big Kelvin Cato all the way to Indianapolis.
In the end, expect UCLA to beat Minnesota in the regional championship for the tickets to Indianapolis.
So there it is. Kentucky beats UCLA handily but can't stop Kansas, which wins another championship for Roy Williams after smoking UNC.
The key to winning the pool is getting at least three teams in the Final Four. And, of course, having the championship game right.
There are a lot of early-round games, though, with a lot of points out there for the taking.
Many pools reward correctly picking an upset. So some "likely upsets" in the early action are:
1. Princeton over Cal. Cal's leading scorer, Ed Gray, is out. And Princeton likes beating PAC-10 teams in the first round (just ask UCLA).
2. Texas over Wisconsin. Longhorns coach Tom Penders wins first round games.
3. UMass over Louisville. The two-headed monster of Edgar Padilla and Carmelo Travieso contains DeJuan Wheat.
4. Georgia over Duke. Nobody wants to play Georgia. Least of all Coach Krzyzewski.
5. Miami (OH) over Clemson. I know I just said Clemson could go to the Final Four. But I like Devin Davis. And what hair!
So there you have it. Guaranteed success. But don't blame me if I'm wrong. It could just be a raging case of madness.