Seemingly forgotten after a dismal showing in the New Hampshire primary, magazine publisher Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes Jr. won a stunning upset in the winner-take-all Arizona primary Tuesday, further complicating an already muddled race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Following last Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, the GOP race appeared to be a three-way dog-fight among U.S. Sen. Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.), political commentator Patrick S. Buchanan and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander.

Buchanan, who claimed a narrow victory in New Hampshire, was looking this week to take advantage of the split in the more moderate conservative vote between Dole and Alexander to push his more radical, isolationist agenda.

And according to analysts, Forbes' win in Arizona may be a sign that the moderate vote is split even further than GOP leaders first thought.

"Clearly, somebody has to get out of this race," said former U.S. Rep. Mickey Edwards (R-Okla.), a lecturer at the Kennedy School of Government.

Edwards said if multiple candidates continue to split the mainstream vote, Buchanan can remain a viable candidate, even though his vote tallies in states hover around 25 to 30 percent.

"Any one of these people can beat Buchanan one-on-one," Edwards said.

But Forbes is labeling his recent success more than simply a boost for Buchanan.

After finishing a distant fourth in the Granite State, Forbes took Delaware's primary Saturday, then poured millions of dollars into television and radio ads to win Arizona, which was expected to be the battleground of a one-on-one confrontation between Dole and Buchanan.

The leading proponent of the flat tax, Forbes now leads in the delegate count with 60. Buchanan has 37, followed by Dole's 35 and Alexander's 10.

"Forbes is a viable candidate because of the non-viability of the others," Edwards said. "Alexander has not caught on anywhere and Dole is quite obviously not exciting people."

With 996 delegates necessary to claim the nomination at the party's San Diego convention in August, analysts said it is becoming noticeably late in the race for delegates to be distributed so evenly.

Edwards said if no candidate emerges as the party's clear choice soon, the possibility exists for a brokered convention, a phenomenon absent from American politics for almost 30 years.

In such a case, explained Edwards, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and several powerful GOP governors would begin working out deals to choose a candidate who could beat President Clinton in November.

In the event of a brokered convention, either Dole would be chosen as the GOP candidate or the GOP would turn to a candidate not in the original race, Edwards said.

If Dole were not chosen, Gen. Colin L. Powell, the former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Jack Kemp, former U.S. Rep. and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, would be the leading candidates for the nomination in a brokered convention, Edwards said.