The most recent quake, which follows a seriesof smaller, hidden-fault based earthquakes inCalifornia, is causing a re-evaluation in thedebate about what type of earthquake would causethe greatest urban damage.
"If anyone had talked about this five or 10years ago," said Ekstrom, "no one would have takenit very seriously."
"We had no idea of the complexities of thefaults in L.A. until recently," Rice said.
Until the 1987 earthquake in Whittier,California, the state had had little seismicactivity for 30 or 40 years. Since 1987 severalearthquakes have shaken the region.
"This earthquake was not a particularly largeearthquake," said Ekstrom. Seismologists generallyconsider earthquakes of magnitude seven or more asmajor quakes.
The damage caused by this medium-sizedearthquake in such a populated urban area mayprompt more research in the prediction ofearthquakes as a means to evacuate at-risk areas.
"Some earthquakes are more predictable thanothers," said Rice.
Rice cited the 1975 earthquake in China whichwas predicted by scientists and resulted in theevacuation of the area. Scientists were able tomake their accurate prediction based onforeshocks, which increased in frequency to thepoint of being "massive signals," according toRice.
But Rice said such quakes were rare. Thefollowing year, in another region of China, anearthquake resulted in a quarter of a milliondeaths. The signs prior to this quake were not asobvious as the first, and thus the region was notevacuated.
"It looks right now that there was nothing tolet us know that this earthquake was coming," saidRice about the California quake. "We don't seeanything that could have been a signal."
"You can only predict that a type of earthquakewill occur in your area," said Ekstrom.
The kind of prediction that is most likely inthe future is a better ability to determine thelikelihood of the type and frequency ofearthquakes in a given area, thus determining thestructure and sites of buildings.
Wood-frame houses are traditionally consideredearthquake safe, according to Ekstrom, but many ofthe buildings that fell in the California quakewere wood-frame.
The research conducted by most Harvardscientists does not encompass such localizedproblems.
"We try to uniformly study the effect of earthquakes on a planetary scale," said Dziewonski.
But the societal impact of earth quakes is notignored in Harvard classrooms. Ekstrom says thathe plans to use the California earth quake "as avery topical example" in his class to discussquake-related topics, such as the costs andresponsibilities associated with clean-up.