The State Department, under Baker, even managed to botch relations with newlydemocratic Russia. For a long time, under Baker's advice, the Bush administration regarded Boris N. Yeltsin as a coarse, drunken fool. The White House waited to embrace Yeltsin until it was no longer politically possible not to do so.

The Bush administration reaped much criticism, including comments by Richard M. Nixon, for not responding quickly and effectively enough to the challenges facing Russia. Thirty-five other countries recognized the independence of the Baltic countries before Bush and Baker finally acted. State Department foot-dragging on providing economic aid has contributed to Russia's current financial woes. Economic uncertainties have made the threat of a nationalist coup to topple Yeltsin very real.

Baker, during the Bush presidency, has carefully managed to avoid blame for his mishandlings of situations. This is nothing new for him. He was the only major Reagan administration official not to be tied to the Iran-Contra scandal. Few people seem to recall that he was secretary of the treasury during the time in which the savings and loan problems mushroomed. And he presided over the precipitous fall of the dollar that culminated in the 1987 stock market crash.

It is interesting that many who discuss Baker's potential run in 1996 are Democrats. Republicans tend to consider his chance to garner the nomination unrealistic.

Few rank-and-file GOP members owe Baker any loyalty. Baker is closely and perhaps irredeemably tied to Bush, hardly the most popular man in prominent Republican circles these days. His fuzzy stand on abortion and lack of any clear ideology offend the party's more partisan members. Besides, many moderate Republicans are so busy counting down the days until Jack F. Kemp's Presidential Inauguration to take Baker very seriously.

So what will become of Baker? For a while, it seemed as if President-elect Clinton might carve out a special Middle East envoy position for Baker. There is speculation that Baker may become Commissioner of Major League Baseball. (Working in the final months of the Bush administration was excellent preparation to deal with baseball's chaos, petty politics and sheer lack of direction.) Most likely, though, Baker will spend most of his time in the near future sitting on a lot of prestigious corporate boards.

Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see what the future holds for Baker. It will be even more interesting to see how history treats him.