And all three of the experts agree thatHarvard's impact on the 1992 election will beminimal. Ellis thinks the reelection of his uncleis a foregone conclusion, seeing no other possibleoutcome given the mathematical possibilities ofthe Electorla College. And Nye and Peterson simplydon't think the advice of individuals from any oneinstitution can have a significant impact.
Peterson says very little affects the outcomeof an election besides the economy. peace or war,party popularity and the like. "Of all thepossible factors affecting the election of1992,...whatever happens at this institution, thatimpact is going to be way down," he says.
Part of the reason for the University's declinein influence is the growth of other sources ofpolitical clout. As public opinion polls play anincreasingly powerful role in shaping policy, themore abstract political prognostication ofacademia is forced to take a back seat.
The popularity of research institutions, or"think tanks" as they are commonly known, mightalso be blamed for the decrease in professorialpower. Still, Harvard professors are oftenintimately connected with these institutions.
The Brookings Institute, a think tank inWashington, D.C., employs as fellows and guestscholars several one time Harvard instructors,including the director of its economics programs,Henry Aaron, and guest scholar Lincoln Gordon '34,who was Ziegler professor of internationaleconomic relations from 1936 to 1961.
And Loeb Associate Professor of the SocialSciences Margaret Weir plans to leave Cambridgenext year to be a senior fellow in residence atthe institute.
The University exerts influence on nationalpolitics not just by sending its scholars toWashington but also by bringing Washington to itsscholars.
Every two years, the Institute of Politics runsa six-day training program for new members ofcongress.
"What we strive to do is help to better preparepeople," Royer says. "We try to get them to lookat the issues from a broader perspective."
Royer said it is "impossible to tell what kindof effect the training has on first-yearlegislators, but acknowledged that with theunusually large turnover he expects in Congressnext session--Royer predicts as many as 120 newmembers--the potential for impact on policy isgreat.
"It's just a big group of people." Royer says."It's going to have an effect."
Although the number of Harvard scholars in theupper echelons of the White House may not be aslarge as in the days of Kennedy, Harvard makes itsmark. Professors share insights with the nation'slawmakers, people associated with the Universitystill take part in campaigns and administrationsand Harvard faculty remain involved with nationalpolicy questions.
The shuttle between the Potomac and the Charlesstill exists, Royer says. It's just "not ascrowded."