Again, as usual, everyone was distinctly unimpressed with the government and the system. Protest voting brought in Fujimoro in an election characterized above all by the rejection of anyone who had ever had anything whatsoever to do with the Lima government, including APRA.
Fujimoro, known as "the Karate Kid" (no, "Fujimoro" is not an Iberian surname), has faced an increasingly bloody war with the Sendero Luminoso, costing 25,000 lives so far.
Lima has not found a decent way of fighting Sendero. The army has taken to shooting up whole villages that are suspected of harboring Senderistas, which doesn't endear the government to anyone. "Civilian response has been to ignore it," one U.S. official told The New York Times. "The military response has been to blow everyone away."
ALL OF THIS leaves two legacies for Peruvian politics. First, steadily decreasing legitimacy, to the point that now even APRA isn't respected. (That didn't stop Fujimoro from jailing or harassing the top Apristas, although Garcia himself may have escaped.)
Second, APRA left a taste for messianic solutions to the endemic problems of underdevelopment and poverty that plague Peru. Sendero plays off of that quite handily--indeed, some Apristas have a certain grudging sympathy for Sendero. After all, they considered violent solutions too.
Still, Sendero is in a class by itself. With a human rights record that makes one's head spin, Sendero's leader Abimale Guzman Reynoso aims not just at revolution, but at a society modeled explicitly on China during the Cultural Revolution.
If it takes a million deaths to do it, that's just fine with Sendero. The only nice thing about Sendero is that it's not getting much help--yet--from the outside. Guzman reviled the Soviet Union, and China hasn't stepped in to help out these Maoist purists (remember, Deng Xiaoping got purged a few times during the Cultural Revolution).
Now, Fujimoro may have a repeat of 1968 in mind--pull a putsch, but don't behave like a putschist. Such progressive authoritarianism is sort of like smoking a joint but not inhaling. Bad idea. Fujimoro's best bet against Sendero is U.S. support (if Bush were wise, he'd think about debt relief instead of just throwing aid dollars into Peru), and Peruvian popular support.
Both will evaporate in some haste if Fujimoro goes authoritarian. Instead of a dictatorship--even a humane one, if that's what he has in mind--he ought to think in terms of presenting himself as an alternative to Sendero.
This can work. When the Catholic Church or APRA offers itself as a viable political option, Senderistas run scared. (Actually, that's not entirely true. Sendero has also been known to react by shooting nuns.)
And if it expects to gain any support, Fujimoro's military should stop doing stupid and brutal things to Peruvians. Fujimoro may also have been forced into this by the military, who have gained power in the struggle with Sendero. In other words, returning to democracy, fragile as it is, may be a tall order.
But ultimately, that is what must be done. Only a government with legitimacy--a Peruvian oddity--can stand up to Sendero and the poverty and desperation it feeds on.
Despite having a horrible economy, Peru has managed to maintain at least the appearance of democracy... ...until last Monday. Now a civil-military coup will destroy even that. Bad idea.