Also in Bush's favor is the widely predicted economic recovery--expected to arrive some time during the primary season--that will placate the electorate's greatest concerns. The proposals forwarded in the State of the Union address illustrate Bush's new focus on domestic policy concerns.
In any case, the Republican electoral lock gives Bush a leg up on the competition. In each of the last six presidential elections, 23 states, accounting for 203 electoral votes, have sided with the GOP. Bush's position and party affiliation spell tough times for any Democratic challengers.
Bush's chances are boosted even more by Democratic weakness. Only when faced with the alternative of "an unnamed Democrat" do many voters opt to abandon Bush. Lightweights such as Gov. Bill Clinton, Sen. Bob Kerrey and Tsongas have failed to whet the appetite of the electorate.
And when polls show that perennial noncandidate Mario M. Cuomo, the besieged governor of New York who can do little more than deliver a good speech, still garners more votes than any of the declared candidates, prospects look bleak for the Democrats.
STILL, WHILE THE DEMOCRATS will lose in November, a significant hole exists on Bush's ideological right. First, the Republican primary process is guided by its conservative wing. Just as in the Democratic party, individuals on the extremes are more likely to be involved in the primary process, and, therefore conservatives play a substantial role in the selection of the Republican presidential nominee.
Conservatives have never felt comfortable with George Bush. The man who, in 1980, was in favor of abortion rights and a critic of Reagan's economic policy, which he termed "voodoo economics," has never truly held the support of the Right. The last four years have served to vindicate those fears.
Bush has retreated on conservative positions on issues. For example, funding for the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) is at its highest level ever. Conservatives have long opposed the NEA's grants process, which provides financing for many projects the Right finds objectionable. In addition, Bush has also departed from traditional conservative support for Israel.
He did not rush to support the right of self-determination for the people of the Baltics or the remainder of the former Soviet Union, for Croatia and Slovenia, or for the Kurds. He has continued to coddle China, despite the fact that over one billion people are without virtually any political or economic liberty and despite that government's continuing practice of questionable foreign arms sales.
All of these policies, along with a number of others, have alienated an overwhelming number of conservatives within the Republican party. But even this alienation may not have been politically fatal to Bush's constituency. What is even more tragic for Bush's candidacy is his alienation of fiscal conservatives as well.
These anti-tax, anti-big spending voters--both Democratic and Republican--formed the core of the Reagan-Bush coalition. Bush's broken pledge on taxes damages this coalition more than any other deviation from the conservative agenda. A second strike against Bush is the 10 percent average annual increase in budget expenditures that have occurred in each year of his administration. These increases represent the fastest rate of spending growth since the FDR years.
The ensuing mega-deficit has done nothing to help the economy or to soothe conservatives' anxiety. Finally, Bush is considered by many to be the "re-regulation king." Some consider his administration's increased regulation to be responsible for decreasing corporate competitiveness.
Bush's greatest vulnerabilities, then, are with the same Republican voters who elected him in 1988 (but who also defeated him in 1980).
GEORGE BUSH, seemingly fraught with a number of electoral and policy challenges, is weak even within his own party. And with good reason. George Bush, in many ways, has courted his own disaster. He has abandoned his major campaign plank, the continuation of Reaganism and, more specifically, "no new taxes."
He squandered the political capital he gained from the Gulf War by not spending time on the domestic front. In short, he has lost every opportunity for gain that has been presented to him. Now, he has gained an enormous opportunity for loss.
Harry James Wilson '93, a Crimson editor, was president of the Harvard Republican Club last year.