Under enhanced choice, 25 percent of the spots, or 25 people, will enter the house in the first round. The chance of a student getting his first choice in this round is 25 out of 360 first-choice students, or 6.94 percent. In the second round, 335 people remain who chose Bok House first, and 180 remain who chose Bok House as one of their four.
Therefore, the remaining 75 spaces in Bok House will go by random chance to students in the ratio 335/180 of first-choices. In other words, 65 percent of the remaining Bok House slots will be filled by students who chose it as first-choice. That means 49 more people who chose Bok House first will get in. Your chance of getting in through the second round is 49/335, or 14.6 percent. Finally, one's chances for the two rounds are additive, so if you designated Bok House as a first choice, your total chance of getting into Bok House is 21.5 percent.
This does NOT mean 21.5 percent of the house will be filled with students who chose Bok House first!
As mentioned above, 25 percent of the house is filled by the first round. 75 percent of the house remains to be filled. Of this 75 percent, we said 65 percent will go to those who chose Bok House as a first choice. Therefore, 65 percent of 75 percent of the house, or 48.8 percent of Bok House, will be filled by students who chose it as a first choice in the second round.
IN TOTAL, 48.8 percent plus 25 percent, or 73.8 percent of Bok House will be filled by what people will call a "homogeneous" population, that is, those people who designated Bok House first choice. The remaining 26.2 percent of Bok House will be filled by people who put Bok House down, but not as a first choice.
Sounds terrible.
But let us not forget to compare enhanced choice with the current system, non-ordered choice, and with old system, ordered choice.
Under the current system of non-ordered choice, a person's chance of getting into Bok House is still dependent on how many people designate it as one of their four choices. There are 100 slots available.
Remember, 540 people designated it. Of those, 360 still want Bok House first, even though that desire is hidden by the system. Only 100 people out of 540 people will get into Bok House, or 18.5 percent. Since 360/540, or 66.7 percent of those 18.5 percent will want Bok House as a first choice, your chance of getting Bok House, it if is your first choice, is 12.3 percent.
Remember, the percentage of first-choice people to non-first choice people will be 360/180 as before. Therefore, Bok House will have 66.7 percent people who wanted it first; it will be 66.7 percent "homogeneous."
Consider ordered choice. Assuming 360 people designate Bok House first, your chances of getting in are 100/360. You have a 22.7 percent chance of getting into your first-choice house. Of course, the house will be 100 percent "homogeneous."
FINALLY, consider this comparison. Ordered choice stinks. You have some chance of getting into Bok House if it is a popular house. But the house masters will hate it because they believe, with some apparent credence, that the houses will be too homogeneous. Non-ordered choice stinks, too. You have a miserable chance of getting into Bok House, and the house will not really be that diverse after all.
Enhanced choice is the ideal solution. You raise your chance of getting into your favorite house in this scenario by 9.2 percent, up to 21.5 percent from 12.3 percent.
However, the houses' diversity will not be compromised. In the extreme scenario described above, enhanced choice only raises the final population of people who wanted the house as a first choice by 7.1 percent, up from 66.7 percent to 73.8 percent.
In truth, most real-life scenarios will not be as extreme as they are above, even in immensely popular houses such as Eliot.
Using the same calculations as above, if only one-fourth of the first-years put down Eliot, and of those half designate it as their first choice, Eliot will end up about 60 percent first-choice students, only 10 percent higher than the 50 percent first-choice designators under non-ordered choice. However, enhanced choice would also increase your chances of getting into Eliot House by 7.5 percent.
Less popular houses will be even more diverse, and the different systems do not change this diversity that significantly; however, the few students who actually DO want these houses can get into them by designating them with a first choice.
Blocking groups who don't care which of their four houses they get can still elect not to designate a first choice without hurting their overall chances.
Some students, masters and members of the administration want choice. Some want diversity. Enhanced choice is a sensible, workable and fair compromise; it enhances the chance of getting into the House of Your Dreams without making it the House of Exclusivity. Adam Hertzman '95 Victor Chiu '95 Dunster House U.C. Reps