When President-elect Clinton runs for reelection in four years, he will most likely face current Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack F. Kemp.

Of course, George Bush's loss means that all bets are off for the Republicans. The party will wrench itself through a purging and soul-searching process the like of which hasn't been since the Franklin D. Roosevelt '04 years in the White House. (A process that finally gave the GOP Dwight D. Eisenhower, a popular improvement over Herbert C. Hoover of immense proportions.) The outcome of this process is anyone's guess.

The post-Bush Republicans will face countless fights, and the hemorrhaging will be intense--especially given the sense of urgency that will come not just from Bush's loss but also from the losses in Congress yesterday.

The issues? Tax cuts versus deficit cuts. Libertarianism versus religious rightism. Protectionist isolationism versus free trading internationalism. Jack Kemp versus Phil Gramm. William J. Bennett versus Bill Weld. Party ideologue and retiring Rep. Vin Weber of Minnesota versus James A. Baker III. Patrick J. Buchanan versus everyone. It's gonna be a bloodbath.

Clinton and Gore should pray that bloodbath lasts as long as the Democrats' internal warring did after the failure of Jimmy Carter.

After 1980, Democrats gave up talk of economic growth, strong defense, family values and investment. They returned to themes of redistributionalism and rights with Walter F. Mondale, only to find that special interest politics dismantled majoritarianism in the party.

Michael S. Dukakis's problems were more personal, but he still couldn't decide whether to be the candidate of suburbia or the candidate of economic change. Clinton showed how a Democrat can be both, and the results are in today's headlines.

But it's safe to say that Kemp will be a major player. He won pre-'96 straw polls of the Republican delegates in Houston last August. Social issue right-wingers love him because he's against gay rights and abortion rights. Economic supply-siders love him because he preaches tax cuts in all circumstances.

His main opposition in the party is Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas, a pain-before-gain deficit cutter with a mean streak so wide that he may easily alienate Republican primary and caucus voters in 1996. In other words, Kemp is now golden in the GOP. Columnist George F. Will even endorsed him for president this year over Bush.

But what's amazing about Kemp is his ability to attract favorable comments from some Democrats and liberals. These folks, who would normally pale at the thought of an anti-abortion rights, anti-gay former football player in the White House, are attracted to his concern for the inner cities. They like his ideas about empowerment and enterprise zones. In general, he's seen as caring, a quality the Republicans have been in short supply of since the days of Nelson A. Rockefeller.

That's what scares me.

Clinton faces an uphill battle starting today. The transition to a fully Democratic Beltway will take months. The economic recovery needs to be handled carefully. The deficit looms as a problem to hit after the recovery stabilizes. Foreign policy will demand his attention in ways we can't yet envision.

I happen to think Clinton will perform admirably; he has as my governor for the last 14 years.

But I'm not completely naive. Things could go wrong. And all his fragile coalition needs is one or two persistent problems. Make no mistake: The conservatives who are voting for him this year will be his loudest and most immediate critics beginning next year. It won't take much to strip them away.

Enter Jack Kemp. The idea that he could win isn't so far-fetched, especially if he downplays his social conservatism and stifles the religious right in his party. This won't be difficult. The hard right that Bush pandered to this year will take much of the blame for his loss. Prochoice, pro-gay rights Gov. William F. Weld '66 is poised to benefit greatly from this--the idea of a Kemp-Weld '96 ticket should frighten any Clintonite.