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In New Hampshire, No Stumping, Just Stuffing

Countdown to '92: Looking to New Hampshire First in a three-part series

And most people, Republicans and Democrats alike, don't think the Lowell, Mass. resident has the slightest chance of winning his party's nomination. But in the absence of strong candidates, some say, Tsongas might yet prove to be a viable candidate.

Paula Smith, the conference co-ordinator at the Manchester campus of the University of New Hampshire, where Tsongas announced his candidacy, says that the candidate was not received that well.

"People agreed with his ideas, but they didn't look at him to be a serious contender," Smith says. "Dukakis spoke here four years ago, and he was thought of as a much more serious contender."

And although the gossip mills are churning about who will jump in next, the rest of the Democratic field remains wide-open.

Much speculation has centered on Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, who has not personally visited New Hampshire this year but sent "political operatives" to scout out the state approximately one month ago, according to Mark Warner, the treasurer for Wilder's exploratory committee.

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"He's also weighing his personal life and his ability to continue serving adequately in Virginia," Warner says.

Another likely candidate is Sen. Albert Gore Jr. '69 (D-Tenn.), who "keeps in touch," says Joseph Grandmaison, a former state party chair and the 1990 Democratic nominee for governor.

And several party insiders say that Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia may also decide to try his luck in the primary, although such a run might only lay the groundwork for a vice-presidential nomination or a '96 run for president.

And despite denials from his office of any intent to run, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo is also considered likely to make a bid for the White House in 1992.

Cuomo has sent representatives to call on Democratic state chair Chris Spiro, but has not himself visited New Hampshire recently, says Republican assistant state chair Kendall W. Lane.

"[Cuomo] is traveling across the country speaking right now," says Steve Edwards, Gov. Judd A. Gregg's deputy chief of staff. "He's not going to come to New Hampshire--that would just lead to too much speculation."

But Cuomo spokesperson Terry Lynam says the governor's speaking engagements are nothing out of the ordinary, and that he has "no plans to run for the presidency, and no plans to make plans. He has made these trips around the country for eight years after completing the state budget. As governor, he thinks it is important to speak on the national level when national issues are at hand," Lynam says.

Other possible candidates include Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas, Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, Sen. Robert Kerrey of Nebraska, House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri and civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, who popped in for a surprise visit in Gov. Gregg's office at the state house.

Two-tier Theory

Grandmaison has developed his own home-spun theory for predicting exactly when potential Democratic candidates will choose to jump in.

Grandmaison separates the pool into two separate tiers--a first tier of candidates such as Gore and Cuomo, who may have serious expectations in the election, and a second group composed of aspirants such as Rockefeller, Kerrey and Clinton, who are probably only aiming to lay the groundwork for a 1996 run.

"My own guess is that as soon as one of those [second-tier] people enter, that will cause the first tier of candidates to either shit or get off the pot," Grandmaison says

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