Even before the war, consumer spending had slowed to a growth rate of less than one percent a year. From July until December of last year, consumer confidence fell 40 percent. Now that the end of the war is in sight, this trend may reverse. Economists note that the war's effects, however, may not be seen immediately.

Increased taxes during the current recession would put a damper on the already shaky economy, most economists (including Alan Greenspan, chair of the Federal Reserve) agree. But financing a war through borrowing can (and almost always does) lead to an increase in inflation. Given an $80 billion cost for the war, says Brad DeLong, assistant professor of economic history, inflation will probably increase by one extra percentage point for each of the next few years.

Indeed, as credit has eased recently and bank reserves increased, the specter of inflation looms large. Once recovery begins, some financial analysts say, increased borrowing could help rev up inflation.

The saving grace in the postwar economy may be what even Secretary of State James Baker admits was the major reason we went to war: oil. "The economic lifeline of the industrial world runs from the Gulf, and we cannot permit a dictator such as [Saddam Hussein] to sit astride that economic lifeline," Baker said in November.

Many economists note that a decrease in the price of oil, combined with increased consumer confidence at having won the war, would go a long way towards counteracting the recession. Right now there's a worldwide oil glut (even with Iraq and Kuwait exporting nothing), and with prospects for war in the Gulf interrupting supply getting less every day, some experts predict that oil prices may drop to as low as $10 to $12 a barrel. And while predictions vary, changes in the world economy have weakened OPEC and made it more difficult for the cartel to jack up prices.

If oil prices do decline, the Federal Reserve will be able to continues to lower interest rates, while at the same time the decrease in price will dampen inflation. And the U.S. will pull itself out of recession.

But when we pull out of the recession, it will be despite, not because of, the war.

We need to produce things people want--like sweaters and the machines that make them. During wartime, we produce things people don't want--like bodybags and the machines that make them.