Dixon says that now that "it is no longer necessary to rely on the older, established family connections," the traditional independents may have seen their heyday.

However, Henry H. Wortis of the activist civic association Working Committee for a Cambridge Rainbow says that the still extant perception of the independents as responsive to neighborhood needs and the CCA as concerned with national and international issues could be the downfall of the progressives.

Wortis says that many traditional, blue-collar Cambridge residents feel that "their interests are served by people who are willing to grant personal favors."

He adds that because of the CCA councillors' voting records over the past two years and their attempts to reach out to the neighborhood vote, "A change in the traditional voting pattern may be evident this year, but it's not necessarily the case."

But even before it attained a majority on the council the CCA was able to enact substantial reforms, and even now votes on important issues are often split 6 to 3 or 7 to 2 instead of 5 to 4. So, observes 20-year Cambridge resident and activist Bill Cavellini, the loss of a CCA seat to an independent contender like Vellucci or School Committee heavyweight Jane F. Sullivan would not be the death knell for city liberals.

However, Cavellini adds that the accomplishments the council has achieved during the current term, with support from both independent and CCA councillors, may convince voters that their interests lie in returning the incumbents to the council.

The councillors earn praise from many sides for reforms, including filling the long-empty post of police commissioner, negotiating a landmark in-lieu-of-taxes agreement with Harvard and forming the mayor's committee to study town-gown issues, appointing new heads of the Department of Public Works and the Water Department and passing an ordinance requiring condom vending machines in Cambridge restaurants.

"[The council] is moving forward and I don't think it's time to turn back," Cavellini says.

Not all sectors of the city, however, are pleased with the council's performance. Cambridge's rent control program is always the focus of great controversy, and the many property owners and private citizens who oppose it fault the progressive councilors for their support of it and for a package of rent control reform passed last spring to great fanfare.

Small Property Owners Association co-chair Denise Jillson says that "we've been disappointed, needless to say" with the council's position. She says that her organization supports Independent councillors, viewing them as "more open to debate" about controversial issues such as rent control.

But Jillson agress with most council watchers that since Toomey supports rent control along with the CCA councillors, it is in a sense a non-issue. "I think it's a mistake to think that if we got a independent majority on the council rent control would go away," she says.

But no one seems to want to go out on a limb saying the Independents will regain their majority or the CCA will strengthen its majority. "It's really hard to make predictions, because this campaign has been largely about mechanics," Dixon says.

Most observers say Vellucci is a formidable contender, and many say that Independent Jane Sullivan could have a chance, because of her long involvement on the school committee and her grass-roots campaign style. Independent James McSweeney may benefit from his money-intensive campaign.

One candidate who has thrown everyone for a loop is R. Elaine Noble, a former member of the state legislature and an open lesbian who has not been active in Cambridge issue. Noble did not seek endorsement from the CCA or the progressive working Committee for a Cambridge Rainbow, although her positions on many issues are decidedly left-of-center.

Although she is running as an independent, Noble says she does not want to be identified with the traditionally conservative independents. Nonetheless, she was endorsed by the Young Independents and the conservative Cambridge First civic association, but not by the Lavender Alliance, the city's only formal gay and lesbian action group.