'Something is Wrong'

CLT representatives, however, say the cuts the petition would cause could be easily absorbed by the vastly inflated state budget.

"Let them run the state on $12.4 billion," said Chip Faulkner, an assistant director of CLT. "If they can't do that, something is drastically wrong."

But because much of the state's budget consists of entitlement programs whose funding is required by law, many of the cuts required by the CLT petition would concentrate on the state's most vital service programs, said Paul Watanabe, a public policy professor at the University of Massachusetts at Boston.

These non-entitlement programs include local aid to the 351 cities and towns of Massachusetts along with state-funded higher education programs.

Local government officials are already restricted by Prop 2 1/2 from raising revenue for local services such as trash collection and snow removal.

If the CLT petition passes, these officials fear cuts will be made in the state's $2.8 billion local aid budget, causing some local government offices--already crippled by aid cuts in the last two years--to close down completely.

Last year, more than 180 of the state's cities and towns had some type of Prop 2 1/2 override question on the ballot, signaling to public policy analysts and state legislators at the time that these local governments were under considerable financial stress.

"We believe if the state has to cut, it will cut local aid," said Sheila Cheimets, the executive director of the Massachusetts Municipal Association.

Cheimets said that while her staff is still compiling hard numbers on the effect the CLT petition will have on local aid, she believes local cuts could be as much as 20 to 25 percent, affecting the most basic services.

"Any of the numbers I've seen are very scary," Cheimets said.

The setbacks these cities and towns may be forced to endure could affect residents for almost a decade, Cheimets said.

No 'Profiles in Courage'

House Majority Leader Charles F. Flaherty (D-Cambridge), who will likely succeed George Keverian '53 (D-Everett) as speaker of the House, has some alternatives if the CLT petition does pass in November.

One option would be simply to send through a new tax package after the CLT tax cuts become effective on January 1.

Flaherty helped Keverian draft a $2 billion tax package last year that failed to pass the House and is often thought to favor increased taxes as a solution to the state's budget crisis.

Political pressure, however, would keep legislators from acting too quickly against a CLT petition passage, said Watanabe.

"I don't see there will be a lot of profiles in courage on this particular issue," he said.