"In a political campaign, momentum means a lot," says Charles Royer, director of the Kennedy School's Institute of Politics.

In fact, he says, it may mean everything.

.Negative Campaigning--The early polls on Tuesday showed that voters generally preferred either Republican candidate--Weld or House Minority Leader Steven D. Pierce--to any of the three Democrats running for governor.

This is not altogether surprising, given that the three Democratic contenders spent most of the last few months "decapitating each other in public," in the words of Royer. He says it comes as little surprise that Silber would emerge from the primary campaign badly burned with negative images.

The Republicans, meanwhile, ran a more civil campaign. Pierce and Weld never stooped to the name-calling of Bellotti, Silber and Lt. Gov. Evelyn Murphy. As a result, Weld enters the final leg of the race relatively unscathed.

But with a good six weeks to go before Election Day, there is plenty of time to scar Weld, too, and Royer says the Republicans cannot afford to relax a bit. For instance, Silber is sure to attack Weld on his wealth, blue-blooded background.

Whether Weld can return the rhetorical volley, he says, remains to be seen.

.Party Support--Of weightier import to the Silber camp, however, is the dearth of support their candidate will likely receive from Bellotti supporters, 75 percent of whom said they would rather abandon their party than cast a vote for Silber.

DiNatale says Silber could well offend the "Victorian sensibilities" of the "whale-saving, brie eating yuppies" who make up 80 percent of Massachusetts liberals. According to DiNatale, these folks just won't go for the constant slurs against interest groups and minorities that have made Silber famous at both B.U. and on the campaign trail.

And because of that factor alone, DiNatale says "my instinct would say you have to give the advantage to Weld."