Expectations

While Kohl's Harvard appearance may have great symbolic value, experts wonder whether Kohl will use the pulpit in Tercentary Theater to announce the kind of policy initiative that Marshall did.

Were Kohl to make a major policy announcement, they say it would most likely involve a plan to ease Soviet fears about German presence in NATO. Both Kohl and President Bush have said that a unified Germany would help preserve European stability and should be a member of the Atlantic Alliance.

Gorbachev, however, has continued to oppose German membership in NATO. Accepting a German presence in the Western alliance would be perceived as a great loss at home, and could have devastating effects on Gorbachev's program for domestic reform, experts say.

According to Nye, "the diplomatic gossip has it that [Kohl] and Bush have already worked out" a compromise that would satisfy the Soviets. Such a compromise might include the continued presence of Soviet troops on East German soil, or massive West German payments to the Soviet Bloc.

But even if such a compromise is already in the works, experts say it is unlikely that Kohl would announce it while in the United States. With West German elections set for December, experts say Kohl would want to make such an announcement on German soil, so he could best reap the political profits at home.