Up until one year ago, the most important thing was for the government to change--and divestment was the correct course of action. Recent events, however, indicate that majority rule in South Africa is imminent. Sanctions still in place continue to pressure the government, but additional divestment will result in unnecessary Black unemployment.
In the past two months, more than 700 Black South Africans have died in the townships outside Johannesburg, in addition to hundreds of other fatalities in Natal. Why the violence if we are supposed to be on the road to peace?
Many blame the South African government and defense forces for instigating the violence. While the violence may be slightly tainted by government intervention or lack thereof, the truth is that the violence would have taken place anyway.
The violence is not the result of infighting between political groups, as portrayed by the American media. It is the result of catastrophic socioeconomic conditions in the townships--conditions exacerbated by apartheid and the government's neglect of the townships. Also, divestment has resulted in fewer and fewer jobs.
When jobs are scarce and economic conditions are squeezed, people cling to their ethnicity and divide along these artificial lines. However, this is not an indication of tribalism clean and simple. It is a response to economic conditions which have been squeezed by sanctions and divestment.
IT IS understandable that Black South Africans and their liberal sympathizers are suspicious of De Klerk and the new overtures being made by the National Party, given the sneaky maneuvers implemented by the ruling minority in the past. And it is understandable why ANC leader Nelson Mandela has called for continued sanctions.
Some view De Klerk's measures as just another way for the National Party to maintain power by confusing the majority. But sanctions will not--and should not--be lifted until the reigns of political power are held by the majority. De Klerk knows that the South African economy can no longer support the costly system of apartheid; the changes he has set into motion are irreversible.
De Klerk has raised expectations both inside and outside of the country. Sanctions have strapped the South African economy and De Klerk and his party do not have the resources or borrowing capability to retreat back into a renewed stronghold.
The question now is not will apartheid continue, but how to dismantle it so that utter chaos does not result. Without such stability, no social reform will be able to take place, and underlying social issues in South Africa--far beyond "one man, one vote"--will not be addressed.
South Africans want to save their economy--an economy which ultimately will serve both Blacks and whites. They also want to avoid repeating the mistakes experienced by the rest of Africa following independence.
The primary problems facing South Africans concern jobs, education, healthcare, as well as the ability to purchase land and houses where they wish.
These programs will cost money, money that neither the government nor the ANC nor other political groups have at the moment. Does the ANC want a new South Africa to depend on revenue from foreign aid--the bane of the rest of Africa's existance? Or do they think that companies that have divested will all of a sudden be beating down their doors to reinvest in the country?
Both of these assumptions are naive. The same economic conditions that caused companies to invest in South Africa will no longer exist--cheap labor, cheap startup costs. Therefore, if divestment continues, even a majority-led South African government will have its hands tied.
Additional divestment now will not hasten the decline of apartheid as much as it will tie the hands of the future leadership.
Jennifer Griffin '91-'92 spent last year in South Africa.